A deterministic linear infection model to inform Risk-Cost-Benefit Analysis of activities during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
A deterministic linear infection model to inform Risk-Cost-Benefit Analysis of activities during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
复制标题
确定性线性感染模型，用于对 SARS-CoV-2 大流行期间的活动进行风险成本效益分析。
DOI：
10.1101/2020.08.23.20180349
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Dewitt,BarryD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McCarthy,JohnE;Dumas,BobA;McCarthy,MylesT;Dewitt,BarryD
Risk-cost-benefit analysis requires the enumeration of decision alternatives, their associated outcomes, and the quantification of uncertainty. Public and private decision-making surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic must contend with uncertainty about the probability of infection during activities involving groups of people, in order to decide whether that activity is worth undertaking. We propose a deterministic linear model of SARS-CoV-2 infection probability that can produce estimates of relative risk for diverse activities, so long as those activities meet a list of assumptions, including that they do not last longer than one day. We show how the model can be used to inform decisions facing governments and industry, such as opening stadiums or flying on airplanes. We prove that the model is a good approximation of a more refined model in which we assume infections come from a series of independent risks. The linearity assumption makes interpreting and using the model straightforward, and we argue that it does so without significantly diminishing the reliability of the model.
