Log Mean Divisia Index Decomposition Analysis of the Demand for Building Materials: Application to Concrete, Dwellings, and the U.K.
Log Mean Divisia Index Decomposition Analysis of the Demand for Building Materials: Application to Concrete, Dwellings, and the U.K.
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DOI：
10.1021/acs.est.0c02387
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发表时间：
2021-03-02
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Myers RJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
He H;Myers RJ
木材是材料密集型产品。迄今为止，对住宅中材料使用的调查主要使用经济（外源）或住宅（内源）驱动因素，很少有研究将两者全面结合起来。这是第一次，我们确定了一套全面的建筑材料需求的驱动因素，并使用对数平均除数指数（LMDI）方法进行分析。我们结合联合收割机的LMDI方法，动态物质流分析的概念，以及物理和货币流分解为以下六个影响建筑材料的需求：材料强度，建筑面积形状，居住类型，居住密度，经济产出和人口。我们分析了这六种影响对英国新住宅混凝土需求的影响。从1951年到2014年，分为六种居住类型和四个次区域。在这六种效应中，材料强度效应是最重要的，从1950年到2014年，混凝土需求增加了+79 Mt，而居住强度效应则起着相反的作用，从1950年到2014年，混凝土需求减少了-56 Mt。经济产出效应也很显著（从1950年到2014年增加了3800万吨）。对英国四个国家的六种效应进行了比较分析。国家的研究表明，大部分影响来自英国，而其他国家由于人口较少，影响较小。我们的研究结果表明，英国对混凝土需求的变化。从1950年到2014年，混凝土的流入量波动，主要保持在± 3000万吨/年之间，因此在此期间，混凝土流入在用住宅存量的趋势既没有完全增加，也没有完全减少。这项研究有助于了解由于社会，经济和技术因素导致的资源需求变化，从而提高了可靠和定量建模建筑环境中材料使用的能力。
Dwellings are material intensive products. To date, material use in dwellings has been investigated mainly using economic (exogenous) or dwelling (endogenous) drivers, with few studies comprehensively combining both. For the first time, we identify a comprehensive set of such drivers of demand for building materials and analyze them using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method. We combine the LMDI method, the concept of dynamic material flow analysis, and physical and monetary flows to decompose the demand for building materials into the following six effects: material intensity, floor area shape, dwelling type, dwelling intensity, economic output, and population. We analyze these six effects on demand for concrete in new dwellings in the U.K. from 1951 to 2014, classified into six dwelling types and four subregions. Of these six effects, the material intensity effect is the most important, overall contributing to increasing concrete demand by +79 Mt from 1950 to 2014, while the dwelling intensity effect plays an opposite role, overall reducing concrete demand from 1950 to 2014 by −56 Mt. The economic output effect is also significant (+38 Mt from 1950 to 2014). A comparative analysis of the six effects in the four U.K. nations reveals that most of the effects arise from England, while the other nations have minor effects due to their smaller populations. Our results show that changes to the demand for concrete in the U.K. fluctuate and have mainly remained between ±30 Mt year–2 from 1950 to 2014, and thus the inflows of concrete into the in-use stock of dwellings have experienced neither entirely increasing or decreasing trends during this period. This study contributes to understanding changes in resource demand due to social, economic, and technological factors and thus improves the capability to reliably and quantitatively model the use of materials in the built environment.
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影响因子：
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作者：
Ang, B. W.
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Ang, B. W.
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