Business Failures and Macroeconomic Factors in the UK
Business Failures and Macroeconomic Factors in the UK
复制标题
英国的企业失败和宏观经济因素
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-8586.2008.00294.x
复制
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jia Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jia Liu
我们研究了企业倒闭和宏观经济总量之间的相互作用，特别是政策引起的变化在宏观经济中观察到的波动，英国企业倒闭在1966-2003年期间使用向量误差修正模型（VECM）的帐户。结果表明，宏观经济总量，即，利率、信贷、利润、通货膨胀和企业出生率对企业倒闭的影响在短期和长期都是不同的。研究表明，在审查期间，金融和真实的部门的结构变化对宏观经济影响企业倒闭的方式产生了影响。特别是，1980年后，企业倒闭越来越多地对货币政策的变化作出反应。此外，企业倒闭的冲击会造成宏观经济总量的大幅波动，这表明公司资产负债表在金融稳定和经济增长方面的重要性。该文件的研究结果带来的政策影响，是有关企业的生存困境和金融驱动的商业周期。
We examine the interactions between business failures and macroeconomic aggregates, and specifically the accounts of policy-induced changes in the macroeconomy for the observed fluctuations of UK business failures in the period 1966-2003 using the vector error-correction model (VECM). The results demonstrate that macroeconomic aggregates, i.e., interest rate, credit, profits, inflation and business births, exert differential impacts on business failures both in the short run and in the long run. The study reveals that structural changes in the financial and real sectors during the examined period have made an impact on the way in which the macroeconomy affects business failures. In particular, business failures are increasingly reacting to monetary policy changes in the post-1980 period. Furthermore, the shocks to business failures can generate large fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates, suggesting the importance of corporate balance sheets in financial stability and economic growth. The paper's findings carry policy implications that are related to the survival of firms in distress and finance-driven business cycles.