Progress and uncertainties in global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions of the Common Era
Progress and uncertainties in global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions of the Common Era
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DOI：
10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107537
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发表时间：
2022-05-14
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Smerdon, Jason E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anchukaitis, Kevin J.;Smerdon, Jason E.
全球和半球温度重建提供了一个重要的手段，把最近的人为温度趋势的背景下，工业化前的气候变化和评估其原因。随着新的重建方法的发展和对过去气候的估计的完善，结果继续表明，到20世纪世纪末，气温很可能超过至少上个千年的任何时候。然而，尽管在过去20年中取得了进展，但除其他外，在第一个千年的全球和年度温度、几十年至千年尺度变化的幅度及其原因以及地表温度对火山爆发的反应等方面仍然存在持续的不确定性。我们回顾了现有的全球和半球古气候温度重建的优势和局限性，并强调了现存不确定性的可能来源，所有这些都是在政府间气候变化专门委员会第一工作组最近第六次评估报告的背景下进行的。根据我们对这些因素的回顾，我们提供了使用，解释和改进大规模温度重建的建议。(c)2022年，任作家。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。这是一篇在CC BY-NC-ND许可证下的开放获取文章（http：//creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/）。
Global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions provide an important means of placing recent anthropogenic temperature trends in the context of preindustrial climate variations and evaluating their causes. As new reconstructions have been developed and estimates of past climate have been refined, results continue to show that by the late 20th century temperatures very likely exceeded those of any time in at least the last millennium. Despite progress over the last two decades, however, there remain persistent uncertainties with regard to, inter alia, first millennium temperatures at global and annual scales, the magnitude of multidecadal to millennial-scale changes and their causes, and the surface temperature response to volcanic eruptions. We review the strengths and limitations of existing global and hemispheric paleoclimate temperature reconstructions and highlight likely sources of extant uncertainties, all in the context of the recent Sixth Assessment Report from Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Based on our review of these factors, we provide recommendations for using, interpreting, and improving large-scale temperature reconstructions. (c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).