Perception of Uncertainty: Lessons for Risk Management and Communication
Perception of Uncertainty: Lessons for Risk Management and Communication
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对不确定性的感知：风险管理和沟通的教训
DOI：
10.1007/978-94-015-8619-1_7
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
H. Kastenholz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ortwin Renn;T. Webler;H. Kastenholz
公众对风险的认识是一个相当复杂的现象，不能根据单一的理论或模型加以描述。心理学研究的主要成就是发现了定性的风险特征和语义图像，这些特征和语义图像可以作为对风险源或活动进行分类和评估的启发式工具。评估风险的直观过程是由一个多维的平衡过程控制的，这个平衡过程涉及预期损失、情境以及与风险源的关联。如果想让人们有机会对可接受性做出谨慎的判断，传播节目就需要把这些发现结合起来。然而，人们普遍认为外行人无法处理概率信息的偏见是不正确的。正如我们的案例研究所表明的那样，人们理解风险信息，并能够在决策过程中整合概率。但这些信息只是其中之一，他们形成自己的态度和判断。L.现代社会对风险问题并不十分敏感。由于对不良事件的形而上学解释失去了合法性，人们倾向于让自己或他人对自然事件或人类活动的意外和不良后果负责[1]。在承诺追究责任的同时，还就社会应关注的风险的类型和特点展开了激烈的辩论。参与管理风险的机构和社会行为者面临的问题是，在政治竞技场中，主要利益攸关方仍在界定其社会作用，公众看到的是各种有争议而且往往相互矛盾的信息，令人困惑。面对风险的不同定义和解释，许多人在面对非自愿风险时采取”安全胜于遗憾”的态度，或者在面对有关他们生活方式的风险信息时采取”它过去没有伤害我”的策略。
The perception of risk among the general public is a rather complex phenomenon that cannot be described on the basis of a single theory or model. The major accomplishment in the psychological research was the discovery of the qualitative risk characteristics and the semantic images that serve as heuristic tools for classifying and evaluating risk sources or activities. The intuitive process of evaluating risk is governed by a multidimensional balancing procedure involving expected losses, situational circumstances, and associations with respect to the risk source. Communication programs need to incorporate these findings if they want to give people the opportunity to make prudent judgments about acceptability. The common prejudice, however, that lay people are unable to process probabilistic information is not true. As our case study demonstrates, people understand risk information and can integrate probabilities in their decision-making process. But this information is only one among others for them to form their own attitudes and judgments. l. IntroductionModem societies have not been very sensitive to risk issues. As metaphysical explanations for undesirable events lose their legitimating power, people tend to make themselves or others accountable for accidents and undesired consequences of natural events or human activities [1]. The pledge for accountability is accompanied by a heated debate about the types and characteristics of risks with which society should be concerned. Institutions and social actors that are involved in managing risk face the problem of legitimating their decisions and policies in a political arena in which the major stakeholders are still defining their social role, and in which the public is observing a confusing mix of controversial and often contradictory information. Being confronted with different definitions and interpretations of risk, many people resort to a" better-safe-than-sorry" attitude when they face involuntary risks, or a strategy of" it has not harmed me in the past" when faced with risk information about their lifestyle.