Infections and Elections: Did an Ebola Outbreak Influence the 2014 US Federal Elections (and if so, How)?
Infections and Elections: Did an Ebola Outbreak Influence the 2014 US Federal Elections (and if so, How)?
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DOI：
10.1177/0956797616628861
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Schaller, Mark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Beall, Alec T.;Hofer, Marlise K.;Schaller, Mark
在此报告的研究中，我们对选前民意调查数据进行了纵向分析，以测试埃博拉疫情是否可以预测 2014 年美国联邦选举前的投票意图。对与 435 场众议院选举有关的全国民意调查和与 34 场参议院选举有关的州特定民意调查进行了分析。分析比较了埃博拉病毒初次爆发前后的投票意图，并评估了“埃博拉”一词的互联网搜索活动与投票意图之间的相关性。结果显示，（a）埃博拉的心理显着性与投票给共和党候选人的意愿增加有关，（b）这种效应主要发生在以有利于共和党候选人的规范为特征的州（这种效应不会发生在有利于民主党候选人的规范的州）。辅助分析解决了几个解释问题。总体而言，这些结果表明，疾病爆发可能会以两种心理上不同的方式影响选民的行为：投票给政治保守候选人的倾向增加，以及顺应民意的倾向增加。
In the studies reported here, we conducted longitudinal analyses of preelection polling data to test whether an Ebola outbreak predicted voting intentions preceding the 2014 U.S. federal elections. Analyses were conducted on nationwide polls pertaining to 435 House of Representatives elections and on state-specific polls pertaining to 34 Senate elections. Analyses compared voting intentions before and after the initial Ebola outbreak and assessed correlations between Internet search activity for the term "Ebola" and voting intentions. Results revealed that (a) the psychological salience of Ebola was associated with increased intention to vote for Republican candidates and (b) this effect occurred primarily in states characterized by norms favoring Republican Party candidates (the effect did not occur in states with norms favoring Democratic Party candidates). Ancillary analyses addressed several interpretational issues. Overall, these results suggest that disease outbreaks may influence voter behavior in two psychologically distinct ways: increased inclination to vote for politically conservative candidates and increased inclination to conform to popular opinion.