Acquisition of Expert Judgment: Examples from Risk Assessment
Acquisition of Expert Judgment: Examples from Risk Assessment
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9402(1992)118:2(136
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发表时间：
1992-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Hora
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Hora
技术危害的风险评估通常需要专家对不确定参数的量化进行判断。将这些判断纳入分析的一种方法是将它们编码为概率或概率分布。本文讨论了一个正式的程序开发这些概率分布。该程序的步骤包括专家的选择，问题的选择和定义，概率启发的准备，概率启发的方法，判断的后处理，和文件。该程序说明了从技术风险评估，包括反应堆安全和核废料处理研究的例子。
Risk assessment of technological hazards usually requires expert judgment for the quantification of uncertain parameters. One method of incorporating these judgments into the analysis is to encode them as probabilities or probability distributions. This paper discusses a formal procedure for developing these probability distributions. The steps in the procedure include selection of experts, selection and definition of issues, preparation for probability elicitation, probability elicitation methods, postelicitation processing of judgments, and documentation. The procedure is illustrated with examples from technological risk assessment, including reactor safety and nuclear-waste disposal studies.