A Copula–Hubbert Model for Co (By)-Product Minerals
A Copula–Hubbert Model for Co (By)-Product Minerals
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钴（副）产品矿物的 Copula–Hubbert 模型
DOI：
10.1007/s11053-020-09643-1
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发表时间：
--
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Yongguang Zhu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Deyi Xu;Yongguang Zhu
主要矿物和副产品矿物的生产高度相关。例如，几乎95%的铟生产可以来自锌的开采和加工。本文提出了一个关于副产物矿物的Copula-Hubbert模型，并将其应用于预测世界锌和铟的产量。与Hubbert模型不同的是，Copula-Hubbert模型中的Copula函数可以连接多个Logistic分布，从而使矿物的生产更加准确。由于矿床之间的地质和采矿信息不对称关系，该模型更适合于副产矿。实证结果表明，锌的峰值可能在2030年左右，而铟的峰值可能在2050年后。未来，铟的峰值和峰值日期可能会受到锌开采和加工的开发利用效率的影响。最后，对该模型的发展方向进行了展望。
Production of major minerals and co(by)-product minerals is highly connected. For example, almost 95% of indium production can be derived from zinc mining and processing. In this paper, a Copula–Hubbert model for co(by)-product minerals is proposed and applied for predicting zinc and indium production in the world. Unlike the Hubbert model, a copula function to joint multiple logistic distributions in the Copula–Hubbert model makes the minerals’ production more accurate. Because of geological and mining information asymmetric relationships among mineral deposits, the model is more appropriate to by-product minerals. The empirical result shows that the peak of zinc may arrive in 2030 nearly; however, the peak of indium may reach after 2050. In the future, the peak value and peak date of indium can be affected by the development and utilization efficiency of zinc mining and processing. Finally, some directions on this model are introduced.