Implication of repatriating migrant workers on COVID-19 spread and transportation requirements
Implication of repatriating migrant workers on COVID-19 spread and transportation requirements
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trip.2020.100187
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Sushma, M. B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Maji, Avijit;Choudhari, Tushar;Sushma, M. B.
由于COVID-19全国封锁，滞留在印度各地的移民工人迫切需要公共交通工具返回原籍。安排运输可能会使COVID-19感染病例数量激增。因此，本文件调查COVID-19感染的确诊及活跃病例的潜在激增，并评估遣返移民工人所需的火车及巴士车队规模。预计遣返农民工人口是通过预测2011年人口普查数据并与新闻媒体报道的信息进行比较得出的。提出了一种改进的易感染-暴露-感染-清除（SEIR）模型，以估计印度选定的移民外流率高的邦的确诊和活动性COVID-19患者病例的激增。开发的模型考虑了不同水平的移民工人的每日到达率，总的移民工人需要运输，和旅行依赖症状的情况下到达的起源的组合。减少移徙工人大量外流的国家的每日移徙工人抵达率（即，北方邦和比哈尔邦）可以帮助降低确诊病例和活跃病例的激增。然而，这可能造成将所有遣返的移徙工人运送回原籍国所需天数的差异。因此，建议每天安排大约100，000名移徙工人前往北方邦和比哈尔邦，每天安排大约50，000名移徙工人前往拉贾斯坦邦和中央邦，每天安排20，000名移徙工人前往马哈拉施特拉邦，每天安排不到20，000名移徙工人前往印度其他邦。
Nationwide lockdown for COVID-19 created an urgent demand for public transportation among migrant workers stranded at different parts of India to return to their native places. Arranging transportation could spike the number of COVID-19 infected cases. Hence, this paper investigates the potential surge in confirmed and active cases of COVID-19 infection and assesses the train and bus fleet size required for the repatriating migrant workers. The expected to repatriate migrant worker population was obtained by forecasting the 2011 census data and comparing it with the information reported in the news media. A modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model was proposed to estimate the surge in confirmed and active cases of COVID-19 patients in India's selected states with high outflux of migrants. The developed model considered combinations of different levels of the daily arrival rate of migrant workers, total migrant workers in need of transportation, and the origin of the trip dependent symptomatic cases on arrival. Reducing the daily arrival rate of migrant workers for states with very high outflux of migrants (i.e., Uttar Pradesh and Bihar) can help to lower the surge in confirmed and active cases. Nevertheless, it could create a disparity in the number of days needed to transport all repatriating migrant workers to the home states. Hence, travel arrangements for about 100,000 migrant workers per day to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, about 50,000 per day to Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, 20,000 per day to Maharashtra and less than 20,000 per day to other states of India was recommended.