European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2014
European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2014
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DOI：
10.1093/annonc/mdu138
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发表时间：
2014-08-01
影响因子：
50.5
通讯作者：
Negri, E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Malvezzi, M.;Bertuccio, P.;Negri, E.
背景资料：根据最新的可用数据，我们预测了2014年欧盟（EU）及其六个人口大国的癌症死亡率统计数据。特别注意胰腺癌，唯一的主要肿瘤显示不利的趋势，在both sexuals.Patients和方法：人口和死亡认证数据从胃，结肠直肠，胰腺，肺，乳腺癌，子宫，前列腺，白血病和总癌症从世界卫生组织数据库和欧盟统计局。数据来自欧盟、法国、德国、意大利、波兰、西班牙和英国。2014年按年龄组分列的预计死亡人数是通过对联合点回归模型确定的最近一段时间的估计死亡人数进行线性回归得出的。2014年，欧盟预计将有1323600人死于癌症。（男性742 500人，女性581 100人），相当于标准化死亡率为138.1/100 000男性和84.7/100 000女性，自2009年以来分别下降了7%和5%。在男性中，三种主要癌症（肺癌、结直肠癌和前列腺癌）的预测发病率低于2009年，分别下降了8%、4%和10%。在女性中，乳腺癌和结直肠癌有有利的趋势（-9%和-7%），但女性肺癌的发病率预计将上升8%。胰腺癌是唯一一种对男女都有负面看法的肿瘤。只在年轻人中（25-49岁），欧盟的趋势变得更有利的男性，而女性继续登记轻微的预测上升。2014年的癌症死亡率预测证实了欧盟整体癌症死亡率的有利趋势，即自1988年的峰值以来，男性死亡率总体下降了26%，女性死亡率下降了20%。与高峰期相比，2014年避免了超过25万人死亡。值得注意的例外是女性肺癌和男女胰腺癌。
Background: From most recent available data, we projected cancer mortality statistics for 2014, for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Specific attention was given to pancreatic cancer, the only major neoplasm showing unfavorable trends in both sexes.Patients and methods: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2014 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model.Results: In the EU in 2014, 1 323 600 deaths from cancer are predicted (742 500 men and 581 100 women), corresponding to standardized death rates of 138.1/100 000 men and 84.7/100 000 women, falling by 7% and 5%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate cancer) are lower than in 2009, falling by 8%, 4% and 10%, respectively. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favorable trends (-9% and -7%), but female lung cancer rates are predicted to rise 8%. Pancreatic cancer is the only neoplasm with a negative outlook in both sexes. Only in the young (25-49 years), EU trends become more favorable in men, while women keep registering slight predicted rises.Conclusions: Cancer mortality predictions for 2014 confirm the overall favorable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 20% in women, and the avoidance of over 250 000 deaths in 2014 compared with the peak rate. Notable exceptions are female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes.