Participatory integrated assessment of flood protection measures for climate adaptation in Dhaka
Participatory integrated assessment of flood protection measures for climate adaptation in Dhaka
复制标题
达卡气候适应防洪措施的参与式综合评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Huijsman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Haque;S. Grafakos;M. Huijsman
达卡是世界上最大的特大城市之一，人口增长迅速。由于其位于三角洲平原上，该市极易发生有害的洪水，由于全球气候变化的影响以及城市面临的高城市化率，预计未来几年与此相关的风险将进一步增加。达卡地势最低的地区，即达卡东部，面临着最严重的洪水风险。传统上，城市这一部分多余的水被有效地储存在水池中，并通过连接的运河逐渐排入河流。然而，由于土地稀缺，达卡人口的惊人增长正在侵蚀这些蓄水区。该市的自然排水系统运作不佳，该地区仍然没有受到洪水的保护，这对其居民造成了重大威胁。这种情况增加了有效适应气候多变性造成的当前洪灾以及未来气候变化影响的紧迫性。虽然政府正在计划采取一些适应性措施来保护该地区免受洪水的影响，但缺乏一个系统的框架来分析和评估这些措施。本文件的目的是制定一个综合框架，用于评估旨在保护脆弱地区免受洪水影响的各种（当前和潜在的）适应措施并确定其优先次序。该研究确定，分析，评估和优先考虑适应性举措和措施，以解决东部边缘地区的洪水风险，适应性评估是在多标准分析（MCA）方法的框架内进行的。多指标分析便利利害关系方的参与，从而允许作出规范性判断，同时将技术专门知识纳入适应评估。根据评估，确定适应措施的优先次序，以表明应首先采取哪些行动。目前达卡市的决策进程中缺乏这种参与性的适应备选办法综合评估，这种评估可大大有助于在制定防洪适应战略方面作出知情和结构合理的决定。
Dhaka is one of the largest megacities in the world and its population is growing rapidly. Due to its location on a deltaic plain, the city is extremely prone to detrimental flooding, and risks associated with this are expected to increase further in the coming years due to global climate change impacts as well as the high rate of urbanization the city is facing. The lowest-lying part of Dhaka, namely Dhaka East, is facing the most severe risk of flooding. Traditionally, excess water in this part of the city was efficiently stored in water ponds and gradually drained into rivers through connected canals. However, the alarming increase in Dhaka’s population is causing encroachment of these water retention areas because of land scarcity. The city’s natural drainage is not functioning well and the area is still not protected from flooding, which causes major threats to its inhabitants. This situation increases the urgency to adapt effectively to current flooding caused by climate variability and also to the impacts of future climate change. Although the government is planning several adaptive measures to protect the area from floods, a systematic framework to analyze and assess them is lacking. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated framework for the assessment and prioritization of various (current and potential) adaptation measures aimed at protecting vulnerable areas from flooding. The study identifies, analyzes, assesses and prioritizes adaptive initiatives and measures to address flood risks in the eastern fringe area, and the adaptation assessment is conducted within the framework of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) methodology. MCA facilitates the participation of stakeholders and hence allows normative judgements, while incorporating technical expertise in the adaptation assessment. Based on the assessment, adaptive measures are prioritized to indicate which actions should be implemented first. Such a participatory integrated assessment of adaptation options is currently lacking in the decision-making process in the city of Dhaka and could greatly help reach informed and structured decisions in the development of adaptation strategies for flood protection.