The Real Effects of Financial Markets: The Impact of Prices on Takeovers
The Real Effects of Financial Markets: The Impact of Prices on Takeovers
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01738.x
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发表时间：
2011-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Alex Edmans;Itay Goldstein;Wei Jiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alex Edmans;Itay Goldstein;Wei Jiang
使用共同基金赎回作为价格变化的工具，我们确定了市场价格对收购活动的强烈影响（“触发效应”）。相对于6%的无条件收购可能性，估值下降四分之一导致收购可能性增加7个百分点。工具解决了这样一个事实，即价格是内生的，并且随着对收购的预期而增加（“预期效应”）。我们的结果推翻了先前的文献，这些文献发现价格与没有仪器的收购之间存在弱关系。这些发现表明，金融市场具有真正的影响：它们通过引发收购威胁来约束管理者。
Using mutual fund redemptions as an instrument for price changes, we identify a strong effect of market prices on takeover activity (the "trigger effect"). An inter-quartile decrease in valuation leads to a 7 percentage point increase in acquisition likelihood, relative to a 6% unconditional takeover probability. Instrumentation addresses the fact that prices are endogenous and increase in anticipation of a takeover (the "anticipation effect.") Our results overturn prior literature which found a weak relation between prices and takeovers without instrumentation. These findings imply that financial markets have real effects: they impose discipline on managers by triggering takeover threats.