The linking of burglary crimes using offender behaviour: Testing research cross-nationally and exploring methodology
The linking of burglary crimes using offender behaviour: Testing research cross-nationally and exploring methodology
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利用犯罪者行为将入室盗窃犯罪联系起来：跨国测试研究并探索方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Bull
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Tonkin;P. Santtila;R. Bull
目的。目前的研究以芬兰的住宅盗窃案为样本，测试英国现有的行为案件关联发现是否可以复制到国外。此外，先前讨论的方法问题是经验探索。方法。对芬兰117名连续入室行窃者所犯的盗窃罪进行了行为相似性、地理邻近性和时间邻近性的七项测量。采用logistic回归和受试者工作特征（ROC）分析，检验了这七种测量方法区分同一罪犯（关联对）和不同罪犯（非关联对）犯罪对的能力。比较了形成非连接对的两种方法；一种代表了研究使用的“传统”方法，另一种代表了一种可能更现实和统计上更合理的方法来测试病例联系的新方法。结果。与之前英国的研究相比，目前芬兰样本中更广泛的罪犯行为能够区分有关联和无关联的犯罪对。最成功的特征是犯罪之间的公里距离（犯罪间距离），分开犯罪的天数（时间接近），以及目标，进入，内部和财产行为的组合（组合域）。两种方法之间没有统计学上的显著差异。结论。目前的研究结果表明，与英国相比，在芬兰，犯罪者的行为范围更广，可以用来区分有关联和无关联的住宅入室盗窃犯罪。使用更现实和统计上合理的方法不会导致病例联系发现的实质性变化。如果警察能够识别由同一个人或同一群人犯下的罪行（即关联犯罪），则可以加强对犯罪的调查
Purpose. The current study tests whether existing behavioural case linkage findings from the United Kingdom (UK) will replicate abroad with a sample of residential burglaries committed in Finland. In addition, a previously discussed methodological issue is empirically explored. Methods. Seven measures of behavioural similarity, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity are calculated for pairs of burglary crimes committed by 117 serial burglars in Finland. The ability of these seven measures to distinguish between pairs of crimes committed by the same offender (linked pairs) and different offenders (unlinked pairs) is tested using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Two methodologies for forming the unlinked pairs are compared; one representing the ‘traditional’ approach used by research and, the other, a new approach that represents a potentially more realistic and statistically sound approach to testing case linkage. Results. A wider range of offender behaviours were able to distinguish between linked and unlinked crime pairs in the current Finnish sample than in previous UKbased research. The most successful features were the kilometre-distance between crimes (the intercrime distance), the number of days separating offences (temporal proximity), and a combination of target, entry, internal, and property behaviours (the combined domain). There were no statistically significant differences between the two methodological approaches. Conclusions. The current findings demonstrate that a wider range of offender behaviours can be used to discriminate between linked and unlinked residential burglary crimes committed in Finland than in the UK. The use of a more realistic and statistically sound methodology does not lead to substantial changes in case linkage findings. The investigation of crime can be enhanced if the police are able to identify crimes that have been committed by the same person or the same group of people (i.e., link crimes