A Low Turnout Landslide: Abstention at the British General Election of 1997
A Low Turnout Landslide: Abstention at the British General Election of 1997
复制标题
低投票率压倒性胜利：1997 年英国大选弃权
DOI：
10.1111/1467-9248.00314
复制
发表时间：
2001
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
R. Johnston
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Pattie;R. Johnston
1997年英国大选的投票率降至战后最低点71%，引发了人们对政治参与长期下降的担忧。然而，仔细分析后，这一判断似乎为时过早。战后英国投票率的大部分下降发生在1950年至1970年之间，没有证据表明1974年至1997年大选投票率长期下降。选举竞争的激烈程度比长期趋势更能预测全国投票率。势均力敌的选举产生了高投票率，但普遍预期的滑坡（如1997年）产生了低投票率。1997年的选举也因主要政党之间的意识形态差距很小而引人注目。对1992年和1997年个人选民投票率的分析表明，工党和保守党之间感知差异的逐年变化对解释两次竞选之间投票率下降至关重要。1997年的投票率很低，因为人们普遍预期结果，而且相对来说很少有人看到政党之间的重大政策分歧，而不是因为英国民主陷入危机。
Turnout at the 1997 British General Election fell to a post-war low of 71 percent, raising worried speculation about long term decline in political participation. On closer analysis, however, this judgement seems premature. Most of the post-war decline in British turnout occurred between 1950 and 1970, and there is no evidence of long term decline in general election turnout between 1974 and 1997. The closeness of the electoral competition is a better predictor of national turnout than a secular trend. Close elections produce high turnout, but widely anticipated landslides (as in 1997) produce low turnouts. The 1997 election was also notable for the small ideological gap between the main parties. Analysis of individual voter abstention in 1992 and 1997 reveals that changes from one year to the other in the perceived difference between Labour and the Conservatives is crucial to accounting for the fall in turnout between the two contests. Turnout in 1997 was low because the result was widely anticipated and because relatively few saw important policy differences between the parties, not because British democracy is in crisis.