China's Impact on Regional Employment: Propagation through Supply Chains and Co-agglomeration Pattern
China's Impact on Regional Employment: Propagation through Supply Chains and Co-agglomeration Pattern
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发表时间：
2020
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通讯作者：
Saito Yukiko;Kainuma Shuhei;M. Fabinger
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作者：
Saito Yukiko;Kainuma Shuhei;M. Fabinger
从中国进口商品如何影响日本当地的劳动力市场？我们将通勤区作为区域单位，结合供应链中的冲击传播以及共同集聚模式来研究这个问题。采用Autor， Dorn和Hanson（2013）和Acemoglu等（2016）提出的方法，我们研究了对区域制造业就业的影响。利用投入产出表，我们可以分析冲击如何传播到上游/下游产业，以及区域影响如何与共同集聚模式相关。我们发现，在以往的研究中，由于没有考虑冲击通过供应链的区域传播，特别是对下游产业的积极冲击，对当地就业的负面直接影响被低估了。由于投入价格较低，下游行业从中国进口产品中受益匪浅，这增加了当地的就业。我们发现上游产业没有显著的影响。我们的研究结果表明，对同一地区下游产业的影响削弱了对当地劳动力市场的直接影响。
How does import from China affect local labor markets in Japan? We examine this question using commuting zones as regional units, incorporating shock propagation through supply chains, as well as co-agglomeration patterns. Applying the method proposed by Autor, Dorn and Hanson (2013) and Acemoglu, et al. (2016), we investigate the impact on regional manufacturing employment. Employing the input-output table allows us to analyse how the shocks propagate to upstream/downstream industries and how regional impact is related to co-agglomeration patterns. We find that the negative direct effect on local employment is underestimated in previous studies that do not consider regional propagation of the shock through supply chains, especially the positive shock to downstream industries. Downstream industries significantly benefit from imports from China due to low input prices, which increases local employment. We find no significant impact on upstream industries. Our results imply that the direct effect on local labor markets is weakened by effects on downstream industries within the same region.