Cold-season Tornado Risk Communication: Case Studies from November 2016 to February 2017
Cold-season Tornado Risk Communication: Case Studies from November 2016 to February 2017
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DOI：
10.1175/wcas-d-17-0073.1
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发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Schumacher, Russ S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Childs, Samuel J.;Schumacher, Russ S.
冷季龙卷风，这里定义为11月至2月（NDJF）期间发生的龙卷风，构成了许多社会风险。它们不仅发生在美国龙卷风最不常见的时候，而且NDJF龙卷风也倾向于在夜间发生，在东南部最普遍，那里地形复杂，资源有限，移动房屋密度高，增加了社会脆弱性。1953年至2015年期间，在北纬25度（42.5度）、西经75度（100度）范围内，有900多人死于NDJF龙卷风。此外，NDJF龙卷风频率的增长速度远快于年龙卷风的增长速度。鉴于社会风险的增加，特别是在东南部，在寒冷季节的龙卷风事件中，专业人员和公众之间的有效沟通是必不可少的。本研究通过对2016年11月至2017年2月四次主要龙卷风事件的事后调查，从国家气象局和广播气象学家以及应急管理人员的角度探讨了沟通策略和障碍。专业人员发现，龙卷风风险沟通的障碍包括公众“以我为中心”、不一致的信息、时间和气象的不确定性，以及具体情况的因素。气象学家普遍认为他们的社区容易受到龙卷风的影响，但也准备好并接受警告。影响感知障碍和脆弱性的因素被纳入龙卷风风险沟通的概念模型，该模型适用于一般的龙卷风。克服这些障碍的想法包括整合预警图形、气象和社会科学界之间的合作，以及改善对社会中最脆弱群体的龙卷风风险教育。
Cold-season tornadoes, defined here as those occurring during November-February (NDJF), pose many societal risks. Not only do they occur when tornadoes are least common in the United States, but NDJF tornadoes also tend to be nocturnal and are most prevalent in the Southeast, where complex terrain, limited resources, and a high mobile home density add social vulnerabilities. In the period 1953-2015, within the domain of 25 degrees-42.5 degrees N, 75 degrees-100 degrees W, over 900 people were killed as a result of NDJF tornadoes. Moreover, NDJF tornado frequency is increasing much faster than that of annual tornadoes. Given the enhanced societal risk, particularly in the Southeast, effective communication between professionals and the public is imperative during a cold-season tornado event. This study investigates communication strategies and barriers from the perspective of National Weather Service and broadcast meteorologists, as well as emergency managers, through a postevent survey of four major tornado events from November 2016 to February 2017. Barriers to tornado risk communication identified by the professionals included public ''me-centeredness,'' inconsistent messages, and timing and meteorological uncertainties, as well as case-specific factors. Meteorologists perceived their communities as vulnerable to tornadoes in general, yet also prepared and receptive to warnings. Factors influencing perceived barriers and vulnerability are incorporated into a conceptual model of tornado risk communication, which is applicable to tornadoes in general. Ideas for overcoming these barriers include consolidation of warning graphics, collaboration between the meteorological and social science communities, and improved education of tornado risks for the most vulnerable sectors of society.