Enhancing hydro-epidemiological modelling of nearshore coastal waters with source-receptor connectivity study.
Enhancing hydro-epidemiological modelling of nearshore coastal waters with source-receptor connectivity study.
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通过源-受体连通性研究加强近岸沿海水域的水文流行病学模型。
DOI：
10.1016/j.envpol.2024.123431
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发表时间：
2024
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lam MY
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lam MY
近岸沿海水域的粪便指示生物(FIO)浓度可能导致重大的公共卫生问题和经济损失。为了改进FIO传输和衰减过程的模拟，并确定影响敏感受体的主要FIO源(源解析)，进行了三维数值源-受体连接性研究。研究地点是英国斯旺西湾，通过将模型模拟与微生物示踪现场研究进行比较，研究了风、密度和示踪微生物(替代FIO)衰减模型的影响。通过对斯旺西湾FIO浓度与已识别的FIO源和控制系统理论中的脉冲响应函数(IRF)的事后预测，证明了连通性测试与源解析的相关性。这是第一次将IRF方法应用于沐浴水域的FIO建模。结果表明，在完全混合的水体中被广泛忽视的密度的重要性，以及两相衰减模型提高预测精度的潜力。携带微生物的河流淡水具有较小的静水压力，不能侵入较重的海水，停留在近岸区域。然后，淡水和相关的示踪微生物沿着海岸线移动，到达洗澡水的地点。如果不包括密度效应，这种效果就不能被忠实地建模。两相衰变模型改善了测量的微生物浓度和模拟的微生物浓度之间的一致性。IRF对斯旺西湾FIO浓度的后测和测量合理地同意了这一点，证明了连通性测试在确定关键FIO来源方面的重要性。这项研究的结果，即加强水文流行病学建模和强调连通性研究在确定关键的FIO来源方面的有效性，直接惠及水力学和水质建模人员、监管当局、水资源管理人员和政策。
Faecal Indicator Organism (FIO) concentrations in nearshore coastal waters may lead to significant public health concerns and economic loss. A three-dimensional numerical source-receptor connectivity study was conducted to improve the modelling of FIO transport and decay processes and identify major FIO sources impacting sensitive receptors (source apportionment). The study site was Swansea Bay, UK and the effects of wind, density, and tracer microbe (surrogate FIO) decay models were investigated by comparing the model simulations to microbial tracer field studies. The relevance of connectivity tests to source apportionment was demonstrated by hindcasting FIO concentration in Swansea Bay with the identified FIO source and the Impulse Response Function (IRF) in Control System theory. This is the first time the IRF approach has been applied for FIO modelling in bathing waters. Results show the importance of density, widely ignored in fully mixed water bodies, and the potential for biphasic decay models to improve prediction accuracy. The microbe-carrying riverine freshwater, having a smaller hydrostatic pressure, could not intrude on the heavier seawater and remained in the nearshore areas. The freshwater and the associated tracer microbes then travelled along the shoreline and reached bathing water sites. This effect cannot be faithfully modelled without the inclusion of the density effect. Biphasic decay models improved the agreement between measured and modelled microbe concentrations. The IRF hindcasted and measured FIO concentrations for Swansea Bay agreed reasonably, demonstrating the importance of connectivity tests in identifying key FIO sources. The findings of this study, namely enhancing hydro-epidemiological modelling and highlighting the effectiveness of connectivity studies in identifying key FIO sources, directly benefit hydraulics and water quality modellers, regulatory authorities, water resource managers and policy.
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