A quantitative framework for a multi-group model of Schistosomiasis japonicum transmission dynamics and control in Sichuan, China
A quantitative framework for a multi-group model of Schistosomiasis japonicum transmission dynamics and control in Sichuan, China
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DOI：
10.1016/s0001-706x(02)00018-9
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发表时间：
2002-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Spear, RC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liang, S;Maszle, D;Spear, RC
为了制定当地的控制策略，提出了血吸虫病传播现场特异性表征的定量框架。该框架的核心是一个蠕虫负担模型，该模型使用由居住地和职业定义的风险群体中疾病传播的常微分方程式。该模型结合了依赖温度和降水的感染阶段的季节性、蜗牛种群动态以及特定于当地农业环境的人类接触水的季节性模式。该模型的参数分为两个主要子集，一个与寄生虫的一般生物学及其在人和蜗牛中的生命周期有关，另一个与当地人口或当地环境的相关方面的疾病状况的直接可测量特征有关。在这方面，模型被结构化和参数化，以最大限度地利用可以通过常规方法在农村中国收集的数据。例如，它包括每个风险群体向环境中排泄鸡蛋的统计模型，该模型基于对感染流行率和强度的当地人口调查。分析框架的第二个要素涉及根据当地情况进行参数估计和校准的战略。我们提出了一种贝叶斯方法，其中参数估计随着时间的推移通过使用广泛的计算机模拟的方法来改进。对四川西南部西昌市附近流行村1987至1989年间收集的数据进行的早期分析表明，参数不确定性可以降低到足以探索有效控制策略的水平。(C)2002 Elsevier Science B.V.保留所有权利。
A quantitative framework is presented for the site-specific characterization of schistosomiasis transmission with the object of developing local control strategies. Central to the framework is a worm-burden model using ordinary differential equations of disease transmission in risk groups defined by residence and occupation. The model incorporates temperature- and precipitation-dependent seasonality of infectious stages, snail population dynamics, and seasonal patterns of human water contact specific to the local agricultural setting. The model's parameters are separated into two main subsets, those associated with the general biology of the parasite and its life cycle in the human and the snail and those associated with directly measurable features of disease status in the local population or relevant aspects of the local environment. In this regard, the model is structured and parameterized to take maximum advantage of data that can be collected in rural China by conventional methods. For example, it includes a statistical model for egg excretion to the environment by each risk group which is based on local population surveys of the prevalence and intensity of infection. The second element of the framework of analysis relates to the strategy for parameter estimation and calibration to local conditions. We propose a Bayesian approach in which parameter estimates are refined over time by methods employing extensive computer simulations. An early analysis of data collected between 1987 and 1989 in endemic villages near Xichang City in southwestern Sichuan provides encouragement that parametric uncertainty can be reduced to levels adequate to explore effective control strategies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.