Trends in bird abundance differ among protected forests but not bird guilds
Trends in bird abundance differ among protected forests but not bird guilds
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受保护森林之间的鸟类丰度趋势有所不同，但鸟类协会之间没有差异
DOI：
10.1002/eap.2377
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Finley, Andrew O.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doser, Jeffrey W.;Weed, Aaron S.;Zipkin, Elise F.;Miller, Kathryn M.;Finley, Andrew O.
改善监测和相关的推理工具，以有效地识别下降的鸟类种群，特别是稀有或稀疏分布的物种，是在大的时空区域知情的保护和管理的关键。我们使用一种新的层次模型评估了2006年至2019年美国东北部8个森林国家公园网络中106种鸟类的丰度趋势。我们开发了一个多物种，多区域，移除采样模型，该模型在物种和公园之间共享信息，以推断稀有物种和稀疏采样的公园，并评估当地森林结构的影响。随着时间的推移，鸟类丰度的趋势在公园之间差异很大，但公园内的物种表现出相似的趋势。三个公园（埃默里迪亚国家公园和马什-比林斯-洛克菲勒和莫里斯敦国家历史公园[NHP]）的所有物种的鸟类丰度都有所下降，而三个公园（萨拉托加NHP和罗斯福范德比尔特和威尔农场国家历史遗址）的丰度则有所增加。鸟类丰度在中等水平的断面积和高水平的百分比森林和森林再生，与百分比森林有最大的影响。这些影响在公园之间的变化可能是森林结构阶段和多样性差异的结果。通过在社区和公园之间共享信息，我们的新型分层模型能够对多个地理区域（即，网络，公园）和分类（即，群落、行业协会、物种）水平。我们发现，在丰富的趋势在公园之间的变化很大，但不是在鸟类公会，这表明当地的森林条件可能有一个广泛的和一致的影响，在一个给定的公园内的整个鸟类群落。研究应该针对鸟类丰度总体呈下降趋势的三个公园，以进一步确定哪些具体因素导致了整个鸟类群落的下降。了解鸟类群落如何应对当地森林结构和其他压力因素（例如，虫害爆发、气候变化）对知情和持久的管理至关重要。
Improved monitoring and associated inferential tools to efficiently identify declining bird populations, particularly of rare or sparsely distributed species, is key to informed conservation and management across large spatiotemporal regions. We assess abundance trends for 106 bird species in a network of eight forested national parks located within the northeast United States from 2006 to 2019 using a novel hierarchical model. We develop a multispecies, multiregion, removal‐sampling model that shares information across species and parks to enable inference on rare species and sparsely sampled parks and to evaluate the effects of local forest structure. Trends in bird abundance over time varied widely across parks, but species showed similar trends within parks. Three parks (Acadia National Park and Marsh‐Billings‐Rockefeller and Morristown National Historical Parks [NHP]) decreased in bird abundance across all species, while three parks (Saratoga NHP and Roosevelt‐Vanderbilt and Weir‐Farm National Historic Sites) increased in abundance. Bird abundance peaked at medium levels of basal area and high levels of percent forest and forest regeneration, with percent forest having the largest effect. Variation in these effects across parks could be a result of differences in forest structural stage and diversity. By sharing information across both communities and parks, our novel hierarchical model enables uncertainty‐quantified estimates of abundance across multiple geographical (i.e., network, park) and taxonomic (i.e., community, guild, species) levels over a large spatiotemporal region. We found large variation in abundance trends across parks but not across bird guilds, suggesting that local forest condition might have a broad and consistent effect on the entire bird community within a given park. Research should target the three parks with overall decreasing trends in bird abundance to further identify what specific factors are driving observed declines across the bird community. Understanding how bird communities respond to local forest structure and other stressors (e.g., pest outbreaks, climate change) is crucial for informed and lasting management.