Detection of imperfect population synchrony in an uncertain world
Detection of imperfect population synchrony in an uncertain world
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1365-2656.2003.00763.x
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发表时间：
2003-11-01
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Stone, L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cazelles, B;Stone, L
1.我们提出了“相位分析”的方法来研究动物种群的时空波动，并使用这种方法来帮助识别显着的同步种群波动，有时可能会发现在非常大的空间域。该方法需要将观察到的种群波动时间序列分解为两个分量-一个量化信号的变化相位，另一个量化变化幅度。3.如果两个种群的相位分量之间存在锁定或同步，则认为它们是“相位同步的”，而它们相关的幅度可能仍然在很大程度上不相关。4.由于环境噪声往往掩盖人口同步，零假设的方法被用来检测是否锁定相位变量比预期的机会。因此，该技术是特别适合生态分析，它往往是重要的研究证据弱相互作用的不规则的非平稳和嘈杂的时间序列。由于气候模式（和预测的气候变化）几乎肯定会影响人口动态，这种方法对于分析气候波动与人口丰度之间的潜在联系似乎特别相关。
1. We propose the method of 'phase analysis' for studying the spatio-temporal fluctuations of animal populations, and use this method for helping identify remarkable synchronized population fluctuations that may sometimes be found over very large spatial domains.2. The method requires decomposing the observed time series of population fluctuations into two components-one that quantifies the changing phase of the signal, and the other that quantifies the changing amplitude.3. Two populations are considered to be 'phase synchronized' if there is locking or synchrony between their phase components, while their associated amplitudes may nevertheless remain largely uncorrelated.4. Since environmental noise often masks population synchrony, a null hypothesis approach is used to detect whether the phase variables are locked more than would be expected by chance alone.5. The technique is thus particularly appropriate for ecological analyses where it is often important to study evidence of weak interactions in irregular non-stationary and noisy time series. Because climatic patterns (and predicted climate changes) almost certainly influence population dynamics, the approach appears particularly relevant for analysing the potential links between climatic fluctuations and population abundance.