The Macroeconomic Effect of Public Investment
The Macroeconomic Effect of Public Investment
复制标题
公共投资的宏观经济效应
DOI：
10.4236/me.2017.811086
复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Chen He
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen He
本文利用VAR模型和VEC模型建立了
中国公共投资、GDP、私人投资和就业数据
1997年至2013年旨在分析中国公共投资对GDP的影响，
通过 ADF 单位根检验、格兰杰因果关系得出的私人投资和就业
检验、Johansen 协整检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解
以及其他经验方法。结果表明存在稳定的均衡关系
中国长期公共投资、GDP、私人投资和就业之间的关系
学期;公共投资在短期内对GDP有正向影响，即
但从长期来看并不明显，甚至是负面的；公共投资拥挤
短期内对民间投资产生影响，同时产生积极影响
相反，从长远来看；公共投资对就业的积极影响
无论是短期还是长期都非常疲软。为了稳定健康发展
社会经济发展，政府应提高公共投资效率
通过控制规模、优化结构、强化实力
公共投资监督；一系列政策也应出台
同时鼓励民间投资。
This paper establishes a VAR model and VEC model using
the data of Chinese public investment, GDP, private investment and employment from
1997 to 2013 aiming to analyze the influence of Chinese public investment on GDP,
private investment and employment through ADF unit root test, Granger causality
test, Johansen co-integration test, impulse response function, variance decomposition
and other empirical methods. Results show that there is a stable equilibrium relationship
among Chinese public investment, GDP, private investment and employment in the long
term; Public investment has a positive effect on GDP in the short term, which is
not obvious even negative in the long term though; Public investment has a crowding
out effect on private investment in the short term, while has a positive impact
instead in the long term; The positive influence that public investment has on employment
is very weak both in the short term and long term. For the stable and healthy development
of social economy, the government should improve the efficiency of public investment
by means of controlling the scale, optimizing the structure and strengthening the
supervision of public investment; A series of policies should be introduced as well
to encourage private investment at the same time.
公共资本与经济增长：趋同方法
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2001
期刊：
Journal of Economic Growth No.6
影响因子：
--
作者：
Shioji;Etsuro
通讯作者：
Etsuro