DOES WELFARE PREVENT CRIME? THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE OUTCOMES OF YOUTH REMOVED FROM SSI
DOES WELFARE PREVENT CRIME? THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE OUTCOMES OF YOUTH REMOVED FROM SSI
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DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjac017
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发表时间：
2022-06-07
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
Mueller-Smith, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Deshpande, Manasi;Mueller-Smith, Michael
我们估计在18岁时失去补充保障收入（SSI）福利对未来二十年刑事司法和就业结果的影响。为了估计这种影响，我们使用回归不连续设计的可能性被审查的SSI资格在18岁的1996年福利改革法。我们评估这个自然的实验与社会保障管理局的数据链接到刑事司法行政记录系统的记录。我们发现，SSI的删除增加了刑事指控的数量在统计上显着的20%，在未来二十年。指控的增加集中在以创收为主要动机的犯罪（增加60%），特别是盗窃、入室盗窃、欺诈/伪造和卖淫。SSI移除对刑事司法参与的影响持续超过二十年后，即使移除对同期SSI接收的影响减少。作为对SSI移除的回应，年轻人被指控非法创收的可能性是他们在劳动力市场上保持15，000美元/年稳定就业的两倍。由于这些指控，每年监禁的可能性增加了统计显着的60%，在20年后SSI删除。从SSI移除执法和监禁的纳税人的成本是如此之高，他们几乎消除了从减少SSI福利纳税人的储蓄。
We estimate the effect of losing Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits at age 18 on criminal justice and employment outcomes over the next two decades. To estimate this effect, we use a regression discontinuity design in the likelihood of being reviewed for SSI eligibility at age 18 created by the 1996 welfare reform law. We evaluate this natural experiment with Social Security Administration data linked to records from the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System. We find that SSI removal increases the number of criminal charges by a statistically significant 20% over the next two decades. The increase in charges is concentrated in offenses for which income generation is a primary motivation (60% increase), especially theft, burglary, fraud/forgery, and prostitution. The effect of SSI removal on criminal justice involvement persists more than two decades later, even as the effect of removal on contemporaneous SSI receipt diminishes. In response to SSI removal, youth are twice as likely to be charged with an illicit income-generating offense than they are to maintain steady employment at $15,000/year in the labor market. As a result of these charges, the annual likelihood of incarceration increases by a statistically significant 60% in the two decades following SSI removal. The costs to taxpayers of enforcement and incarceration from SSI removal are so high that they nearly eliminate the savings to taxpayers from reduced SSI benefits.