Public Policy and the Income-Fertility Relationship in Economic Development
Public Policy and the Income-Fertility Relationship in Economic Development
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发表时间：
2012-12
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通讯作者：
M. Kimura;Daishin Yasui
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作者：
M. Kimura;Daishin Yasui
在前工业化时代，社会中家庭的收入和生育率之间存在正相关，但在现代，这种明显的关联似乎不存在，既不是正相关，也不是负相关。为什么社会内部的收入-生育关系会随着时间的推移而变化，这是经济增长历史上一个尚未解决的难题，格雷戈里·克拉克（Gregory Clark）提出了这个问题（例如，《告别施舍》，2007年）。本文认为，儿童公共政策在解决这一难题方面发挥着关键作用。儿童公共政策的变化与经济发展之间的相互作用导致了家庭间收入-生育率关系的变化，以及平均生育率随时间的驼峰形动态变化。
In the pre-industrial era, there was a positive association between income and fertility across households within societies, but in the modern era, a clear association does not seem to exist, neither positive nor negative. Why the income-fertility relationship within societies changed over time is an unsolved puzzle in the history of economic growth, one that has been raised by Gregory Clark (e.g., A Farewell to Alms, 2007). This paper suggests that public policy for children has a key role in solving this puzzle. The interaction between changes in public policy for children and economic development generates changes in the income-fertility relationship across households, as well as hump-shaped dynamics of the average fertility rate over time.