Macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land—A case study of Argentina
Macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land—A case study of Argentina
复制标题
生物能源生产对剩余农业土地的宏观经济影响——以阿根廷为例
DOI：
10.1016/j.rser.2009.05.010
复制
发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
15.9
通讯作者：
A. Faaij
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Wicke;E. Smeets;A. Tabeau;J. Hilbert;A. Faaij
本文从国内生产总值、贸易平衡和农业剩余土地上大规模生物能源生产的就业等方面评估了宏观经济影响。开发了一个投入产出模型，根据情景方法评估生物能源生产和农业集约化的直接、间接和诱发的宏观经济影响，这是使农业用地可用于生物能源生产所必需的。该方法应用于阿根廷的一个案例研究。研究结果表明，与2001年的参考情况相比，2015年大规模颗粒生产将直接使GDP增加4%，进口增加10%，就业增加6%。当考虑到间接和诱发影响时，与2001年相比，国内生产总值增长18%，进口增长20%，就业增长26%。农业集约化减少但不否定生物能源生产的这些积极影响。考虑到农业集约化，与2001年相比，剩余农业用地上生物能源生产的GDP增长将达到16%，进口增长20%，就业增长16%。
This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts in terms of GDP, trade balance and employment of large-scale bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. An input–output model is developed with which the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production and agricultural intensification, which is needed to make agricultural land become available for bioenergy production, are assessed following a scenario approach. The methodology is applied to a case study of Argentina. The results of this study reveal that large-scale pellet production in 2015 would directly increase GDP by 4%, imports by 10% and employment by 6% over the reference situation in 2001. When accounting for indirect and induced impacts, GDP increases by 18%, imports by 20% and employment by 26% compared to 2001. Agricultural intensification reduces but does not negate these positive impacts of bioenergy production. Accounting for agricultural intensification, the increase in GDP as a result of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land would amount to 16%, 20% in imports and 16% in employment compared to 2001.