AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model
AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tranpol.2019.04.013
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Schafer, Andreas W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dray, Lynnette M.;Krammer, Philip;Schafer, Andreas W.
旨在影响航空运输的政策必须在一个复杂的、相互作用的乘客、航空公司、机场和其他利益攸关方的全球系统中运作。在这种情况下，能够评估政策结果的工具至关重要。鉴于政策相关时间尺度上的未来需求、成本和技术特征的高度不确定性，这些工具还需要能够对各种可能的未来的结果进行评估。本文介绍了全球AIM航空系统模型的全面开源更新的验证研究和初始基线结果。我们表明，使用2005年基年数据运行2005年至2015年的模型可以很好地再现观察到的需求水平和增长模式。以2015年为基准年，我们预计2050年全球需求将在13.8万亿至46万亿收入客公里（RPK）之间，分别是2015年的2.2倍和7.4倍，主要取决于未来人口，收入和油价的假设情况。如果飞机技术没有任何根本性的变化，这将导致全球航空业的直接二氧化碳排放量在8.76亿吨至2.5亿吨之间，是2015年水平的1.5至4.4倍。这种广泛的基线变化可能对长期航空政策及其对不同未来的适应性构成挑战。
Policies aimed at influencing air transportation must operate in a complex, interacting global system of passengers, airlines, airports and other stakeholders. Tools which are capable of assessing policy outcomes in this situation are vital. Given the high uncertainty about future demand, costs and technology characteristics on policy-relevant timescales, such tools also need to allow the evaluation of outcomes from a wide range of plausible futures. This paper presents the validation study and initial baseline results from a comprehensive, open source update of the global AIM aviation systems model. We show that running the model from 2005 to 2015 using 2005 base year data reproduces well the observed demand levels and patterns of growth. Running from a 2015 base year, we project global demand in 2050 of between 13,800 billion and 46,000 billion revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), respectively 2.2 and 7.4 times year 2015 values, depending primarily on the future scenario for population, income and oil price assumed. Absent any radical change in aircraft technology, this would lead to global direct CO2 emissions from aviation of between 876 and 2500 Mt, or 1.5 to 4.4 times the year-2015 level. This wide level of baseline variation may present a challenge for long-term aviation policy and its adaptability to different futures.