Interrelated impacts of climate and land-use change on a widespread waterbird.
Interrelated impacts of climate and land-use change on a widespread waterbird.
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气候和土地利用变化对广泛分布的水鸟的相互影响。
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2656.13444
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Chad B. Wilsey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sarah P. Saunders;W. Piper;Matthew T. Farr;B. Bateman;N. Michel;Henrik Westerkam;Chad B. Wilsey
气候和土地利用变化在确定物种分布和丰度方面起着至关重要的作用，但由于时间滞后、相互作用和数据限制，测量这些过程对当前和未来种群轨迹的同时影响具有挑战性。将多个全球变化驱动因素与人口变化联系起来的大多数方法仅基于发生或计数数据。我们利用三个长期（1995-2019）数据集，开发了一个耦合的综合种群模型-贝叶斯种群生存力分析（IPM-BPVA），通过明确将生命率与气候和土地利用变化联系起来，预测美国威斯康辛州北部常见的Gavia immer的未来生存和繁殖成功。冬季北大西洋涛动（NAO）是一个大尺度气候指数，在繁殖季节之前和繁殖区内发达土地覆盖的年度变化都对成虫的生存产生了强烈的负面影响。当地夏季降雨与繁殖力呈负相关，尽管这种关系是由与冬季NAO的滞后相互作用介导的，表明对气候变率的补偿性种群水平响应。比较了12种未来土地利用变化、降水和NAO条件下的种群生存力。在所有情况下，潜鸟的数量都预计会下降，但预计在NAO正趋势下下降幅度最大，正如正在进行的气候变化所预期的那样。因此，在美国北部繁殖的潜鸟很可能会继续受到数千英里外北大西洋在年度循环的非繁殖期发生的气候过程的影响。我们的研究结果表明，气候和土地利用的变化对其繁殖范围南部边缘的潜鸟种群数量下降有不同的影响，并且尽管有自然的补偿反应，这种影响将继续下去。我们还证明，对多种数据类型的并发分析有助于更深入地理解发生在多个空间尺度上的人为变化的生态影响。我们的建模方法可用于预测人口对不同环境条件的人口反应，同时考虑到多种不确定性来源，面对前所未有的全球变化，这是一种日益迫切的需求。
Together climate and land-use change play a crucial role in determining species distribution and abundance, but measuring the simultaneous impacts of these processes on current and future population trajectories is challenging due to time lags, interactive effects and data limitations. Most approaches that relate multiple global change drivers to population changes have been based on occurrence or count data alone. We leveraged three long-term (1995-2019) datasets to develop a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM-BPVA) to project future survival and reproductive success for common loons Gavia immer in northern Wisconsin, USA, by explicitly linking vital rates to changes in climate and land use. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a broad-scale climate index, immediately preceding the breeding season and annual changes in developed land cover within breeding areas both had strongly negative influences on adult survival. Local summer rainfall was negatively related to fecundity, though this relationship was mediated by a lagged interaction with the winter NAO, suggesting a compensatory population-level response to climate variability. We compared population viability under 12 future scenarios of annual land-use change, precipitation and NAO conditions. Under all scenarios, the loon population was expected to decline, yet the steepest declines were projected under positive NAO trends, as anticipated with ongoing climate change. Thus, loons breeding in the northern United States are likely to remain affected by climatic processes occurring thousands of miles away in the North Atlantic during the non-breeding period of the annual cycle. Our results reveal that climate and land-use changes are differentially contributing to loon population declines along the southern edge of their breeding range and will continue to do so despite natural compensatory responses. We also demonstrate that concurrent analysis of multiple data types facilitates deeper understanding of the ecological implications of anthropogenic-induced change occurring at multiple spatial scales. Our modelling approach can be used to project demographic responses of populations to varying environmental conditions while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, an increasingly pressing need in the face of unprecedented global change.