The conditional probabilities of survival in patients with anaplastic astrocytoma or glioblastoma multiforme
The conditional probabilities of survival in patients with anaplastic astrocytoma or glioblastoma multiforme
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DOI：
10.1016/s0090-3019(03)00322-7
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发表时间：
2003-11-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Hwang, SL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lin, CL;Lieu, AS;Hwang, SL
[背景]采用条件生存概率方法，对114例间变性星形细胞瘤和多形性胶质母细胞瘤患者的生存率进行了研究。生存几年的条件概率生存到开颅手术后的一个特定的时间段和95%的置信区间进行了计算，在个别肿瘤survivers.Results的估计中位生存期为30个月的45例间变性星形细胞瘤和69例多形性成胶质细胞瘤12个月。间变性星形细胞瘤开颅术后1年、2年、3年、4年或5年生存的条件概率为下一年生存的条件概率。分别为86.2%、75.0%、85.9%、77.8%、85.7%;多形性胶质母细胞瘤分别为64.8%、58.7%、85.7%、80.0%、75.0%。假设间变性星形细胞瘤开颅术后生存2年，生存5年的条件概率，即，多形胶质母细胞瘤的生存率为40.2%，也高于观察的5年生存率（12.4%）。结论条件生存概率是一种较好的预测肿瘤生存者年生存率的方法。此外，该方法可以估计生存到开颅手术后的特定时间段的未来几年的生存概率。它还显示了一个更令人鼓舞的结果比观察幕上恶性星形细胞瘤患者的生存率。(C)2003年爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
BACKGROUND By the use of conditional probabilities of survival, we studied the yearly survival rates for individual tumor survivors.METHODS \Conditional survival rate was estimated in 114 consecutive patients with anaplastic astrocytoma or glioblastoma multiforme. Conditional probabilities of surviving some years given survival to a specific period of time after craniotomy and 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the individual tumor survivors.RESULTS The estimated median survival was 30 months for 45 patients with anaplastic astrocytoma and 12 months for 69 patients with glioblastma multiforme. The conditional probabilities of surviving next one year given survival to 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, or 5 years after craniotomy for anaplastic astrocytoma. were 86.2%, 75.0%, 85.9%, 77.8%, or 85.7%, respectively; for glioblastoma multiforme 64.8%, 58.7%, 85.7%, 80.0%, or 75.0%, respectively.. The conditional probability of surviving to 5 years given survival to 2 years after craniotomy for anaplastic astrocytoma, i.e., surviving an additional 3 years, was 50.1%, which was better than observed 5-year survival rate (28.6%); for glioblastoma multiforme it was 40.2%, which also was better than observed 5-year survival rate (12.4%).CONCLUSIONS The conditional probability of survival was a good method to clinically predict yearly survival rate for individual tumor survivors. In addition, the method can estimate the probabilities of surviving next some years given survival to a specific period of time after craniotomy. It also showed a more encouraging result than observed survival rate in patients with supratentorial malignant astrocytomas. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.