Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Effects of Recent Climatic Variation on Site Productivity and Forest Function across Western North America
Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Effects of Recent Climatic Variation on Site Productivity and Forest Function across Western North America
复制标题
基于过程的建模评估近期气候变化对北美西部地区生产力和森林功能的影响
作者：
R. Waring;N. Coops;A. Mathys;T. Hilker;Greg Latta
基于过程的森林生长模型3-PG（生理学原理预测生长），参数化的土壤属性值的限制，卫星派生的估计最大叶面积指数（LAImax），运行的道格拉斯冷杉（黄杉），以对比在北美西部，在凉爽，潮湿的时期，（1950-1975）和一个更近的，普遍温暖和干燥的一个（2000-2009）。LAImax代表一个替代的整体网站的增长潜力，从两个变量之间的强相关性，与后者的基础上的平均年增量估计在3356地面美国林务局调查地块在整个俄勒冈州和华盛顿州的高潮。结果表明，自2000年以来，预测的LAImax已经下降了20%以上，在美国西南部的部分地区和西部阿尔伯塔的大部分森林地区。预测不列颠哥伦比亚省、爱达荷州和蒙大拿州的部分地区的最大叶面积指数也会有类似的百分比增加。建模分析包括对初级生产总值（GPP）的季节性限制变化的评估。整个研究区域春季霜冻造成的限制普遍减少。这导致了更长的生长季节，沿着夏季蒸发需求的显著增加和远离太平洋海洋影响的大部分研究区域的土壤干旱。
A process-based forest growth model, 3-PG (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth), parameterized with values of soil properties constrained by satellite-derived estimates of maximum leaf area index (LAImax), was run for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) to contrast the extent to which site growth potential might vary across western North America between a cool, wet period (1950-1975) and a more recent, generally warmer and drier one (2000-2009). LAImax represents a surrogate for overall site growth potential, as demonstrated from a strong correlation between the two variables, with the latter based on the culmination of mean annual increment estimates made at 3356 ground-based U.S. Forest Service survey plots across the states of Oregon and Washington. Results indicate that since 2000, predicted LAImax has decreased more than 20% in portions of the Southwest USA and for much of the forested area in western Alberta. Similar percentage increases in LAImax were predicted for parts of British Columbia, Idaho and Montana. The modeling analysis included an assessment of changes in seasonal constraints on gross primary production (GPP). A general reduction in limitations caused by spring frost occurred across the entire study area. This has led to a longer growing season, along with notable increases in summer evaporative demand and soil drought for much of the study area away from the maritime influence of the Pacific Ocean.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Westerling, A. L.;Hidalgo, H. G.;Swetnam, T. W.
通讯作者：
Swetnam, T. W.
理论物理进展第 79 卷（1988）
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