Epidemiology of pseudorabies in intensive pig farms in Shanghai, China: Herd-level prevalence and risk factors
Epidemiology of pseudorabies in intensive pig farms in Shanghai, China: Herd-level prevalence and risk factors
复制标题
中国上海集约化养猪场伪狂犬病流行病学：猪群患病率及危险因素
DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.08.013
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发表时间：
2018-11-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Cai, Chang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xia, Luming;Sun, Quanyun;Cai, Chang
伪狂犬（PR），也称为奥杰斯基病，是一种影响猪和多种动物的高度传染性疾病。伪狂犬病在许多国家是地方性的。在中国，这是控制和根除的重点动物疾病，但集约化养猪场的疾病频率数据和相关风险因素信息不足。本研究对上海集约化养猪场（>= 350头母猪）进行了横断面研究，以确定猪群水平的PRV患病率及相关危险因素。采用两阶段随机抽样设计，对上海91个集约化养猪场的1349份母猪血清样本进行了简单酶联免疫吸附试验。如果至少有一头猪瘟病毒检测呈阳性的母猪存在，则猪群被归类为阳性。通过对养猪场主或兽医的问卷调查，收集了假定的风险/保护因素的信息。建立逻辑回归模型以确定群体阳性的风险/保护因素。结果表明，群体水平的真实患病率为67.6% （95% CI: 57.0 ~ 77.0）。在采用后向逐步回归方法的多变量logistic回归模型中，发现两个风险因素与群体阳性显著相关：“过去12个月内与引进母猪繁殖”（OR = 3.5, 95%CI:1.2, 10.3）和“存在流浪狗或猫”（OR = 4.0, 95%CI:1.2, 12.6）。多变量logistic模型对数据拟合良好。Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示chi(2) = 10.86 (df = 8, p = 0.21 > 0.05)，可预测性（ROC曲线下面积）为0.86。本研究提示PR在上海集约化养猪场高度流行。本研究确定的危险因素和保护因素可为上海和中国其他地区的PR预防政策的完善提供参考。
Pseudorabies (PR), also known as Aujeszky's disease, is a highly contagious disease affecting pigs and a wide range of animals. Pseudorabies is enzootic in many countries. In China, it is a priority animal disease for control and eradication, however the data on disease frequency in intensive pig farms and the information on associated risk factors is inadequate. A cross-sectional study of intensive pig farms (>= 350 sows) in Shanghai was conducted to determine herd-level prevalence of PRV and associated risk factors. Following a two-stage random sampling design, a total of 1349 sow serum samples were tested by sipl-ELISA from a total of 91 intensive pig farms in Shanghai. A herd was classified as positive if at least one PRV test-positive sow was present. Information on putative risk/protective factors was collected using questionnaires to pig farm owners or veterinarians. A logistic regression model was built to identify risk/protective factors for herd positivity. The results indicated that the herd-level true prevalence was 67.6% (95% CI : 57.0-77.0). In the multivariable logistic regression model using backward stepwise procedure, two risk factors were found to be significantly associated with herd positivity: `Breeding with introduced sows in the last 12 months' (OR = 3.5, 95%CI:1.2, 10.3) and 'Presence of stray dogs or cats' (OR = 4.0, 95%CI: 1.2, 12.6). The multivariable logistic model fitted the data well. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed chi(2) = 10.86 (df = 8, p = 0.21 > 0.05) and the predictability (area under the ROC curve) was 0.86. This study suggested that PR was highly endemic in intensive pig farms in Shanghai. The risk and protective factors identified in this study could be useful to improve the prevention policy of PR in Shanghai and other areas of China.