Southeast Asia and conflict prevention. Is ASEAN running out of steam?
Southeast Asia and conflict prevention. Is ASEAN running out of steam?
复制标题
东南亚与冲突预防。
DOI：
10.1080/09512748.2012.685094
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Kivimäki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Kivimäki
摘要 如果很难评估东盟过去的成功，那么猜测东盟是否会成功就几乎是不可能的。但这正是本文的目的。然而，这是通过首先定义成功预防冲突的强有力标准来实现的。如果可以通过解决冲突或转变冲突，或者仅仅通过避免冲突来避免冲突和战斗死亡，那么冲突预防就是成功的。本文将从这一标准入手，论证东盟的和平不能用持久的客观条件来解释。相反，它是建立在想象的现实之上的。由于与物质和规范/制度发展的相互作用，东盟方式的想象现实变得越来越难以维持。在沟通变得容易且不可控、社会变得更加富裕和民主化的新现实中，东盟之路的许多构建基础是不可持续的。然而，本文将表明，现有冲突暴力的证据表明，东盟已开始重新制定其预防冲突的方法，并且这在很大程度上取得了成功。
Abstract If the assessment of ASEAN's success in the past is difficult, speculations on whether ASEAN will be a success will be close to impossibility. Yet this is what is intended in this article. However, this is done by first defining robust criteria of success of conflict prevention. Conflict prevention is successful if conflicts and battle deaths can be avoided, either by means of conflict resolution or transformation, or simply by means of conflict avoidance. By starting with this criterion the article will argue that ASEAN peacefulness cannot be explained by durable objective conditions. Instead, it is built on imagined realities. The imagined realities of the ASEAN Way are getting more difficult to sustain due to their interaction with material and normative/institutional developments. Many of the constructed foundations of the ASEAN Way are unsustainable in the new realities where communication has become easy and uncontrollable, and societies have become wealthier and more democratized. However, the article will show that evidence of existing conflict violence suggests that ASEAN has started to reformulate its approach to conflict prevention and that this has largely been successful.