BIFURCATION-ANALYSIS OF PERIODIC SEIR AND SIR EPIDEMIC MODELS
BIFURCATION-ANALYSIS OF PERIODIC SEIR AND SIR EPIDEMIC MODELS
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DOI：
10.1007/bf00163027
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发表时间：
1994-01-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
PICCARDI, C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
KUZNETSOV, YA;PICCARDI, C
研究了接触率为正弦变化的SEIR和SIR传染病模型周期解的分支。分析进行两个参数：平均值和接触率的季节性程度。通过数值延拓方法得到了相应的双参数空间中的肖像。余维二分叉（退化翻转和尖点）被检测到，并确定在参数空间的各个区域中的多个稳定的行为模式。最后，它示出了如何的SEIR模型的参数画像，SIR模型的潜伏期趋于零时。
The bifurcations of the periodic solutions of SEIR and SIR epidemic models with sinusoidally varying contact rate are investigated. The analysis is carried out with respect to two parameters: the mean value and the degree of seasonality of the contact rate. The corresponding portraits in the two-parameter space are obtained by means of a numerical continuation method. Codimension two bifurcations (degenerate flips and cusps) are detected, and multiple stable modes of behavior are identified in various regions of the parameter space. Finally, it is shown how the parametric portrait of the SEIR model tends to that of the SIR model when the latent period tends to zero.