Prognostic Analysis of Patients with Ebola Virus Disease.
Prognostic Analysis of Patients with Ebola Virus Disease.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0004113
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发表时间：
2015-09
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Song H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang X;Rong Y;Sun L;Liu L;Su H;Zhang J;Teng G;Du N;Chen H;Fang Y;Zhan W;Kanu AB;Koroma SM;Jin B;Xu Z;Song H
埃博拉病毒会导致急性严重疾病，如果不治疗往往会致命。然而，影响该疾病存活的因素仍不清楚。在这里，我们通过各种统计模型来研究埃博拉病毒病（EVD）的预后因素。63例临床资料相对完整的实验室确诊EVD患者被纳入研究。所有患者均于2014年10月1日至2015年1月18日在塞拉利昂Jui政府医院招募。我们首先调查了单一的临床表现是否与埃博拉病毒病的生存有关。Log-rank检验显示，病毒载量高于106拷贝/ml的患者生存时间明显短于病毒载量低于106拷贝/ml的患者（P = 0.005）。此外，使用Pearson卡方检验，我们发现胸痛、昏迷和病毒载量（bb0 106拷贝/ml）与EVD患者的不良生存率显著相关。此外，我们通过Cox比例风险模型评估了多个变量对EVD生存的影响。有趣的是，结果显示，患者的年龄、混淆症状和病毒载量与EVD病例的生存率显著相关（P = 0.017、P = 0.002和P = 0.027）。这些结果表明，年龄、胸痛、昏迷、意识模糊和病毒载量与EVD的预后相关，其中病毒载量可能是影响疾病生存的最重要因素之一。目前在西非爆发的埃博拉病毒病（EVD）是自1976年首次发现该病毒以来规模最大、最复杂的埃博拉疫情。影响这种疾病存活的因素尚不清楚。在这里，我们调查了塞拉利昂63例具有相对完整临床资料的eb病毒的预后因素。使用不同的统计模型，我们发现年龄、胸痛、昏迷、意识模糊和病毒载量与EVD的预后相关，其中病毒载量可能是影响疾病生存的最重要因素之一。
The Ebola virus causes an acute, serious illness which is often fatal if untreated. However, factors affecting the survival of the disease remain unclear. Here, we investigated the prognostic factors of Ebola virus disease (EVD) through various statistical models. Sixty three laboratory-confirmed EVD patients with relatively complete clinical profiles were included in the study. All the patients were recruited at Jui Government Hospital, Sierra Leone between October 1st, 2014 and January 18th, 2015. We first investigated whether a single clinical presentation would be correlated with the survival of EVD. Log-rank test demonstrated that patients with viral load higher than 106 copies/ml presented significantly shorter survival time than those whose viral load were lower than 106 copies/ml (P = 0.005). Also, using Pearson chi-square test, we identified that chest pain, coma, and viral load (>106 copies/ml) were significantly associated with poor survival of EVD patients. Furthermore, we evaluated the effect of multiple variables on the survival of EVD by Cox proportional hazards model. Interestingly, results revealed that patient’s age, symptom of confusion, and viral load were the significantly associated with the survival of EVD cases (P = 0.017, P = 0.002, and P = 0.027, respectively). These results suggest that age, chest pain, coma, confusion and viral load are associated with the prognosis of EVD, in which viral load could be one of the most important factors for the survival of the disease. The current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa is the largest and most complex Ebola outbreak since the virus was first discovered in 1976. Factors affecting the survival of the disease remain unclear. Here, we investigated the prognostic factors of EBV from 63 cases with relatively complete clinical profiles in Sierra Leone. Using different statistical models, we found that age, chest pain, coma, confusion and viral load were associated with the prognosis of EVD, in which viral load could be one of the most important factors for the survival of the disease.