Dealing with Uncertainty in Water Distribution System Models: A Framework for Real-Time Modeling and Data Assimilation
Dealing with Uncertainty in Water Distribution System Models: A Framework for Real-Time Modeling and Data Assimilation
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000325
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发表时间：
2014-02
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
C. Hutton;Z. Kapelan;L. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia;D. Savić
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Hutton;Z. Kapelan;L. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia;D. Savić
摘要配水系统（WDS）模型可以改善系统控制时，应用实时数据，并在这样做，有助于满足消费者和监管的需求。这种实时建模往往忽略了系统不确定性的多个来源，这些不确定性会级联到模型预测中，并影响鲁棒操作解决方案的确定。本文认为，主要的不确定性在WDS建模和审查有前途的方法，不确定性量化和减少建模级联校准，通过数据同化，模型预测。一个不确定性框架，举例说明如何可以应用这些方法来传播不确定性，通过实时控制过程的概述。创新的方法来约束不确定性时，时间跨度和数据的可用性限制这种彻底的分析也进行了讨论，以及需要解决的挑战，将不确定的信息纳入控制决策。进一步的工作评估这些方法的价值在...
AbstractWater distribution system (WDS) models may improve system control when applied using real-time data, and in doing so, help meet consumer and regulatory demands. Such real-time modeling often overlooks the multiple sources of system uncertainty that cascade into model forecasts and affect the identification of robust operational solutions. This paper considers key uncertainties in WDS modeling and reviews promising approaches for uncertainty quantification and reduction in the modeling cascade from calibration, through data assimilation, to model forecasting. An uncertainty framework exemplifying how such methods may be applied to propagate uncertainty through the real-time control process is outlined. Innovative methods to constrain uncertainty when the time-horizon and data availability limit such thorough analysis are also discussed, alongside challenges that need to be addressed to incorporate uncertain information into the control decision. Further work evaluating the value of these methods in...