Socioeconomic impacts of resilience to seaport and highway transportation network disruption
Socioeconomic impacts of resilience to seaport and highway transportation network disruption
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trd.2022.103236
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发表时间：
2022-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Wei;Adam K. Rose;Eyuphan Koc;Zhenhua Chen;L. Soibelman
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文献类型：
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作者：
D. Wei;Adam K. Rose;Eyuphan Koc;Zhenhua Chen;L. Soibelman
建立了一个综合运输-社会经济模型，用于分析海港和相关运输网络中断的经济后果和恢复力。由于这种破坏可能会对一个地区的人们产生不平等的影响，因此构建该模型是为了分析总体经济影响和对社会经济群体的影响。我们说明了该模型的有用性，在模拟地震的情况下，影响港口的洛杉矶和长滩。通过区域和区域间供应链，港口中断，公路运输成本增加和一般建筑物损坏造成的GDP损失总额估计为242亿美元，在整个美国为302亿美元。据估计，几种弹性策略的组合将使洛杉矶的GDP影响减少41.3%，美国减少57.6%。分布分析表明，中低收入群体受港口中断影响的比例更大，中高收入群体受建筑物损坏影响的程度更大。
An integrated transportation-socioeconomic model is developed to analyze the economic consequences of and resilience to seaport and associated transportation network disruptions. Since such disruptions can affect people in a region unequally, the model is constructed to analyze both aggregate economic impacts and impacts across socioeconomic groups. We illustrate the model’s usefulness in a simulated earthquake scenario affecting the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Total GDP losses from port disruptions, highway transportation cost increases, and general building damages, working through regional and interregional supply-chains, are estimated at $24.2 billion in the Port Region and $30.2 billion in the U.S. as a whole. A combination of several resilience tactics is estimated to reduce GDP impacts by 41.3% in LA and 57.6% in the U.S. The distributional analysis indicates the extent to which lower-to-middle-income groups are more proportionally impacted by port disruptions and middle-to-higher-income groups are more impacted by building damages.