Barking up the wrong evidence tree. Comment on Lurie & Rosenthal, "Concurrent partnerships as a driver of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa? The evidence is limited".
Barking up the wrong evidence tree. Comment on Lurie & Rosenthal, "Concurrent partnerships as a driver of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa? The evidence is limited".
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DOI：
10.1007/s10461-009-9639-6
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发表时间：
2010-02
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Morris, Martina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morris, Martina
并发性正在成为 HIV 预防研究界讨论的中心话题，这是一件好事 [1]。关于这个话题的良性辩论早就该进行了。富有成效的辩论需要对行为（个人层面）和疾病传播动态（群体层面）之间的关系有深入的了解。这种关系决定了相关证据。这些概念很简单，但很微妙。如果弄错了，就很容易犯一些常见的错误，正如 Lurie 和 Rosenthal 在此处所做的那样 [2]。Lurie 和 Rosenthal 认为并发假设没有太多的经验支持。虽然他们审查了大量材料，但其中大部分价值有限，因为评估并发性的目标与他们审查的研究中使用的方法之间存在不匹配。为了理解其中的原因，我们需要退一步问：鉴于我们对并发性如何影响传播的了解，并发性对艾滋病毒流行影响的预测经验特征是什么？
It is good that concurrency is becoming a central topic of discussion in the HIV prevention research community [1]. A healthy debate on this topic is long overdue. A productive debate requires a solid understanding of the relationship between behavior (at the individual level) and disease transmission dynamics (at the population level). This relationship determines the relevant evidence. The concepts are simple, but subtle. Get them wrong, and it is easy to make some common mistakes, as Lurie and Rosenthal do here [2].Lurie and Rosenthal argue that there is not much empirical support for the concurrency hypothesis. While they review a great deal of material, much of it is of limited value, because there is a mismatch between the goal of assessing concurrency and the methodologies used in the studies they review. To understand why, we need to back up a step and ask: Given what we know about how concurrency influences transmission, what is the predicted empirical signature of concurrency’s influence on the HIV epidemic?
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