Seropositivity for HIV and the development of AIDS or AIDS related condition: three year follow up of the San Francisco General Hospital cohort
Seropositivity for HIV and the development of AIDS or AIDS related condition: three year follow up of the San Francisco General Hospital cohort
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HIV 血清阳性和艾滋病或艾滋病相关病症的发展：旧金山总医院队列的三年随访
DOI：
10.1136/bmj.296.6624.745
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发表时间：
1988
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
James Carlson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Moss;P. Bacchetti;D. Osmond;W. Krampf;R. Chaisson;D. Stites;J. Wilber;J. Allain;James Carlson
在旧金山的一组人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）血清阳性的男性中，获得性免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病）的三年精算进展率为22%。另外26人（19%）出现了艾滋病相关病症。β2微球蛋白浓度、血细胞比容、HIV p24抗原血症以及T4淋巴细胞的比例和数量各自独立地预测向艾滋病的进展。β2微球蛋白是最有力的预测指标。经所有预测指标检测正常的111名受试者（40%）三年进展率为7%，而有两项或更多项预测指标异常的68名受试者（24%）进展率为57%。进展为艾滋病的所有男性中有三分之二属于最后一组。未进展为艾滋病的受试者的T4淋巴细胞计数中位数从626×10⁶降至327×10⁶/升。每年有7%的受试者出现HIV p24抗原血症。有两项或更多项预测变量异常的比例上升至41%。三年时，估计三分之二的血清阳性受试者出现临床艾滋病、艾滋病相关病症或对艾滋病有高度预测性的实验室结果。从观察到的比率以及三年时预测变量的分布情况可以得出结论：在研究开始后的六年内，HIV血清阳性的男性中有一半将发展为艾滋病，四分之三将发展为艾滋病或艾滋病相关病症。
The three year actuarial progression rate to the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in a cohort of men in San Francisco who were seropositive for the human immuno-deficiency virus (HIV) was 22%. An additional 26 (19%) developed AIDS related conditions. β2 Microglobulin concentration, packed cell volume, HIV p24 antigenaemia, and the proportion and number of T4 lymphocytes each independently predicted progression to AIDS. β2 Microglobulin was the most powerful predictor. The 111 subjects tested who were normal by all predictors (40%) had a three year progression rate of 7%, and the 68 subjects who were abnormal by two or more predictors (24%) had a progression rate of 57%. Two thirds of all men who progressed to AIDS were in the last group. The median T4 lymphocyte count in subjects who did not progress to AIDS fell from 626 × 106 to 327 × 106/1. HIV p24 antigenaemia developed in 7% of the subjects per year. The proportion who were abnormal by two or more predictive variables rose to 41%. At three years an estimated two thirds of the seropositive subjects showed clinical AIDS, an AIDS related condition, or laboratory results that were highly predictive of AIDS. It is concluded from the observed rates and the distribution of predictive variables at three years that half of the men who were seropositive for HIV will develop AIDS by six years after the start of the study, and three quarters will develop AIDS or an AIDS related condition.