Mortality from ship emissions: A global assessment
Mortality from ship emissions: A global assessment
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DOI：
10.1021/es071686z
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发表时间：
2007-12-15
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Lauer, Axel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Corbett, James J.;Winebrake, James J.;Lauer, Axel
流行病学研究一直将环境中的颗粒物(PM)浓度与负面健康影响联系起来，包括哮喘、心脏病发作、住院和过早死亡。我们使用两个地理空间排放清单和两个全球气溶胶模型对远洋船舶的环境PM浓度进行了模拟。我们通过将船舶引起的环境颗粒物增加应用于心肺和肺癌的浓度风险函数和人口模型来估计全球和区域死亡率。我们的结果表明，与航运相关的PM排放每年导致约60,000人死于心肺和肺癌，其中大多数死亡发生在欧洲、东亚和南亚的海岸线附近。根据目前的法规和航运活动的预期增长，我们估计到2012年，每年的死亡人数可能会增加40%。
Epidemiological studies consistently link ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) to negative health impacts, including asthma, heart attacks, hospital admissions, and premature mortality. We model ambient PM concentrations from oceangoing ships using two geospatial emissions inventories and two global aerosol models. We estimate global and regional mortalities by applying ambient PM increases due to ships to cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration-risk functions and population models. Our results indicate that shipping-related PM emissions are responsible for approximately 60,000 cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths annually, with most deaths occurring near coastlines in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia. Under current regulation and with the expected growth in shipping activity, we estimate that annual mortalities could increase by 40% by 2012.