The Future of Demand for Food Away from Home and Prepared Food: Cohort and Age Effects in Japan
The Future of Demand for Food Away from Home and Prepared Food: Cohort and Age Effects in Japan
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DOI：
10.1515/jafio-2017-0038
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发表时间：
2018-07
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Fujioka;M. Fukushige
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Fujioka;M. Fukushige
摘要随着日本社会的老龄化，人们对两种复合型商品，即外出食品（FAFH）和预制食品（PF）的需求呈上升趋势。本文估计了FAFH和PF的需求函数，采用近似理想的需求系统，预测了年龄和队列变化对未来需求的影响。我们发现，年龄效应降低，而队列效应增加FAFH的份额，但减少PF的份额。随着时间的推移，FAFH的需求逐渐减少，但保持稳定。截至2010年，对PF的需求一直在下降，下降速度比FAFH快。其原因是年龄效应和人口动态趋势都降低了对这两种商品的需求，而队列效应减缓了对FAFH的需求下降，但加速了对PF的需求下降。
Abstract The demand for two composite goods, food away from home (FAFH) and prepared food (PF), are trending upward in Japan as Japanese society ages. This paper estimates the demand function of FAFH and PF. We adopt the almost ideal demand system and predict the effect on future demand from age and cohort changes. We find that the age effect decreases both while the cohort effect increases the share of FAFH but decreases that of PF. Over time, the demand for FAFH gradually decreases but remains stable. The demand for PF has been decreasing as of 2010 and more quickly than for FAFH. The reason is that both the age effect and the dynamic population trend decrease the demand for both goods, while the cohort effect slows the decrease in demand for FAFH but accelerates that for PF.