Land-use protection for climate change mitigation
Land-use protection for climate change mitigation
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2444
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发表时间：
2014-12-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Dietrich, Jan Philipp
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Popp, Alexander;Humpenoeder, Florian;Dietrich, Jan Philipp
土地利用变化，主要是热带森林向农业用地的转变，是碳排放的一个巨大来源，并在很大程度上导致了全球变暖（1-3）。因此，旨在减少森林砍伐碳排放的机制被广泛讨论，一个核心挑战是避免国际碳泄漏，如果森林保护没有在全球范围内实施”，在这里，我们表明，森林保护计划，即使在全球范围内实施，也可能导致另一种类型的碳泄漏，即在不受森林保护计划（非森林泄漏）约束的非森林地区推动耕地扩张。这些区域有一个较小的。但仍有相当大的潜力储存碳（5,6）。研究表明，到2100年，全球森林政策可以减少77亿吨二氧化碳的碳排放，但由于非森林泄漏效应，非森林土地的碳储量仍将减少96亿吨二氧化碳。此外;农业手工的放弃和相关的通过植被再生的碳吸收受到阻碍。因此，有效的缓解措施需要涵盖所有富含碳的生态系统的融资结构和保护投资。然而，我们的分析表明，需要更大的农业生产率的提高来弥补对农业扩张的这种限制。
Land-use change, mainly the conversion of tropical forests to agricultural land, is a massive source of carbon emissions and contributes substantially to global warming(1-3). Therefore, mechanisms that aim to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation are widely discussed, A central challenge is the avoidance of international carbon leakage if forest conservation is not implemented globally'', Here, We show that forest conservation schemes, even if implemented globally, could lead to another type of carbon leakage by driving cropland expansion in non-forested areas that are not subject to forest conservation schemes (non-forest leakage). These areas have a smaller,. but still considerable potential to store carbon(5,6). We show that a global forest policy could reduce carbon emissions by 77 Gt CO2, but would still allow for decreases in carbon stocks of non-forest land by 96 Gt CO2, until 2100 due to non-forest leakage effects. Furthermore; abandonment of agricultural hand and associated carbon uptake through vegetation regrowth is hampered. Effective mitigation measures thus require financing structures and conservation investments that cover the full range of carbon-rich ecosystems. However, our analysis indicates that greater agricultural productivity increases would be needed to compensate for such restrictions on agricultural expansion.