War and famine, peace and light? The economic dynamics of conflict in Somalia 1993–2009
War and famine, peace and light? The economic dynamics of conflict in Somalia 1993–2009
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DOI：
10.1177/0022343313492991
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发表时间：
2013-09
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
A. Shortland;K. Christopoulou;C. Makatsoris
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Shortland;K. Christopoulou;C. Makatsoris
有关战争经济的文献认为，长期内战有其经济逻辑：某些群体可能通过实施暴力行为获得物质利益，从而抵制建设和平的努力。迄今为止，对这些预测的客观检验还很有限，因为腐败和冲突阻碍了可靠的实地经济数据的收集。遥感和地理信息科学技术使我们能够克服地面数据收集的这些问题。卫星图像中记录的夜间光发射所体现的电力消耗被提议作为索马里城市可支配收入变化的指标。夜光图像提供了经济衰退和复苏的引人注目的例证，并清楚地显示了索马里北部稳定地区与索马里南部混乱和无政府状态之间的对比。基于对索马里城市定居模式的地理空间分析，我们认为光输出的具体指标可以用来代表不同社会群体的收入。我们使用地理编码的冲突事件数据来分析冲突对当地光输出和收入的经济影响。我们发现，位于城市边缘的贫困家庭可以享受到巨大的和平红利，这些家庭既受益于当地的稳定，也受益于整个国家更加和平的环境。相比之下，中央商务区相对较好地免受当地冲突的影响，摩加迪沙的暴力事件对人道主义援助机构所在城市的光输出产生了积极影响。未来的和平倡议需要面对这些导致索马里持续冲突和国家失败的经济诱因。
The literature on war economies argues that prolonged civil wars have an economic logic: certain groups may obtain material gains from committing acts of violence and hence resist peacebuilding efforts. Objective tests of these predictions have so far been limited, as corruption and conflict prevent the collection of reliable economic data on the ground. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Science techniques enable us to overcome these problems of terrestrial data collection. Electricity consumption manifested as night-time light emissions recorded in satellite images is proposed as a proxy for changes in disposable income in Somalia’s cities. The nightlight images provide striking illustrations of economic decline and recovery and clearly show the contrast between the stable regions of Northern Somalia and the chaos and anarchy of Southern Somalia. Based on geospatial analyses of settlement patterns in Somali cities, we argue that specific metrics of light output can be used to proxy for the incomes of different social groups. We use geo-coded conflict event data to analyze the economic impact of conflict on local light output and therefore incomes. We find a significant peace dividend for poorer households located at the margins of cities, which benefit both from local stability and more peaceful conditions in the country as a whole. By contrast, the central business districts are relatively well insulated from the effects of local conflict, and violence in Mogadishu has positive effects on light output from cities where humanitarian aid agencies are located. Future peace initiatives need to confront these economic incentives for continued conflict and state failure in Somalia.