Predicting Driving Performance in Older Adults: We Are Not There Yet!
Predicting Driving Performance in Older Adults: We Are Not There Yet!
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DOI：
10.1080/15389580802117184
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发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Porter, Michelle M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bedard, Michel;Weaver, Bruce;Porter, Michelle M.
客观的。我们开展这项研究是为了确定已记录与驾驶表现的统计关联的方法的预测价值。方法。我们确定了四种不同预测因素（简易精神状态检查、Trails A 测试、有用视野 [UFOV] 和过去驾驶事件的综合测量）与驾驶表现之间的统计关联（关联大小和仅偶然发生的概率）。然后，我们利用受试者工作特征 (ROC) 曲线和各种截止值探讨了这些措施的预测价值。结果。我们发现预测变量与驾驶表现之间的关联远远超出了偶然因素的影响 (p < .01)。尽管如此，预测变量的预测价值有限，曲线下面积范围为 0.51 至 0.82。结论。统计关联不足以推断出足够的预测价值，特别是当诸如是否可以继续驾驶等关键决策受到威胁时。如果用作独立的筛选测试，我们检查的预测因子的预测价值有限。
Objective. We set up this study to determine the predictive value of approaches for which a statistical association with driving performance has been documented.Methods. We determined the statistical association (magnitude of association and probability of occurrence by chance alone) between four different predictors (the Mini-Mental State Examination, Trails A test, Useful Field of View [UFOV], and a composite measure of past driving incidents) and driving performance. We then explored the predictive value of these measures with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and various cutoff values.Results. We identified associations between the predictors and driving performance well beyond the play of chance (p < .01). Nonetheless, the predictors had limited predictive value with areas under the curve ranging from .51 to .82.Conclusions. Statistical associations are not sufficient to infer adequate predictive value, especially when crucial decisions such as whether one can continue driving are at stake. The predictors we examined have limited predictive value if used as stand-alone screening tests.