Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?
Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?
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货币政策惯性：事实还是虚构？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.864484
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Glenn D. Rudebusch
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Glenn D. Rudebusch
估计的货币政策规则往往似乎表明中央银行对政策利率的部分调整缓慢。事实上，这样的证据似乎并不具有说服力，因为货币政策惯性的幻觉可能反映了被虚假地忽略的对政策制定的持续影响。同样，理论论据也没有为现实世界的政策惯性提供令人信服的理由。但是，通过考察利率期限结构中对未来货币政策的预期而得到的政策规则的经验证据，信息量很大，实际上政策惯性很小。
Estimated monetary policy rules often appear to indicate a sluggish partial adjustment of the policy interest rate by the central bank. In fact, such evidence does not appear to be persuasive, since the illusion of monetary policy inertia may reflect spuriously omitted persistent influences on the setting of policy. Similarly, theoretical arguments do not provide a compelling case for real-world policy inertia. However, empirical evidence on the policy rule obtained by examining expectations of future monetary policy embedded in the term structure of interest rates is very informative and indicates that the actual amount of policy inertia is quite low.