Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland
Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2009.02.028
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发表时间：
2009-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Kujala;M. Hänninen;T. Arola;J. Ylitalo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Kujala;M. Hänninen;T. Arola;J. Ylitalo
芬兰湾（GOF）位于芬兰和爱沙尼亚沃茨之间。芬兰的海底有深有浅，芬兰群岛地区存在许多水下岩石。在过去的几年里，该地区的海上交通一直在快速增长，特别是由于向俄罗斯运输各种货物和从俄罗斯运输石油的快速增长。本文分析了GOF地区海上交通安全问题。首先，在过去的10年中详细的事故统计数据进行了说明，此后船舶碰撞的风险进行了研究，在两个位置的理论模型。最后将理论模型的计算结果与实际事故统计数据进行了比较。结果表明，搁浅是这一沃茨的主要事故类型，每年发生搁浅事故约11起，其中油轮搁浅事故约1起。碰撞风险最高的是赫尔辛基和塔林之间的客船/RoPax船舶交通以及向东/向西往返俄罗斯港口的高交通强度。与事故统计数据相比，理论碰撞模型给出了良好的结果。AIS数据在理论模型中被用来计算几何碰撞概率。
The Gulf of Finland (GOF) is geographically situated between Finland and Estonian waters. The seafloor varies between deep and shallow and a number of underwater rocks exist in the Finnish archipelago area. The marine traffic has been growing fast during the last years in this area, especially due to the rapid increase of the transportation of various cargoes to Russia and the transport of oil from Russia. In this paper the safety of the marine traffic in the GOF area is analysed. First a detail accident statistics during the last 10 years are described and thereafter the risk of ship collisions is studied by theoretical modelling in two locations. Finally the results of the theoretical models are compared with actual accident statistics. The results reveal that grounding is the dominating accident type in these waters and typically about 11 groundings take place annually, of which about one is a tanker grounding. For collision the highest risks are caused by the passenger ship/RoPax ships traffic between Helsinki and Tallinn together with the high traffic intensity eastwards/westward to and from Russian harbours. The theoretical collision models give good results when compared with the accident statistics. AIS data is utilised in the theoretical models to calculate the geometric collision probabilities.