Integrating existing climate adaptation planning into future visions: A strategic scenario for the central Arizona–Phoenix region
Integrating existing climate adaptation planning into future visions: A strategic scenario for the central Arizona–Phoenix region
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DOI：
10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103820
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发表时间：
2020-08
影响因子：
9.1
通讯作者：
David M Iwaniec;E. Cook;M. Davidson;Marta Berbés-Blázquez;N. Grimm
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
David M Iwaniec;E. Cook;M. Davidson;Marta Berbés-Blázquez;N. Grimm
为了确保当代人和子孙后代的福祉和生态系统完整性得到维护和改善，城市面临着诸多挑战。城市规划必须考虑城市的社会、生态和技术系统 (SETS) 之间多样化且不断变化的相互作用。城市努力采用长期方法来探索、预测和规划可持续性和复原力，而情景开发是满足这一需求的一种方法。在本文中，我们提出了开发所谓“战略”情景的框架，这些情景是根据表达未实现的市政优先事项和目标的治理文件创建的情景或未来愿景。虽然情景方法因不同的规划和决策目标而异，但只有一些方法提供了现有计划和未来目标的切实、系统的表示，可以将其作为可持续性和复原力的评估和规划工具进行探索。事实上，这里提出的战略情景方法 (1) 强调多部门和跨学科干预； (2) 确定现有规划目标之间的系统性冲突、权衡和协同作用； (3) 纳入代表城市短期规划举措的尚未实现的目标和战略。我们提出了亚利桑那州中部-菲尼克斯大都市区的战略情景示例，并讨论了该战略情景在城市研究和实践中未来可持续性和复原力的长期思考中的效用。这种方法汇集了不同的（有时是竞争的）战略，并提供了通过比较和对比其影响和权衡来探索结果的机会，并根据通过替代的参与性方法制定的情景评估最终的战略情景。
Cities face a number of challenges to ensure that people’s well-being and ecosystem integrity are not only maintained but improved for current and future generations. Urban planning must account for the diverse and changing interactions among the social, ecological, and technological systems (SETS) of a city. Cities struggle with long-range approaches to explore, anticipate, and plan for sustainability and resilience—and scenario development is one way to address this need. In this paper, we present the framework for developing what we call ‘strategic’ scenarios, which are scenarios or future visions created from governance documents expressing unrealized municipal priorities and goals. While scenario approaches vary based on diverse planning and decision-making objectives, only some offer tangible, systemic representations of existing plans and goals for the future that can be explored as an assessment and planning tool for sustainability and resilience. Indeed, the strategic scenarios approach presented here (1) emphasizes multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary interventions; (2) identifies systemic conflicts, tradeoffs, and synergies among existing planning goals; and (3) incorporates as yet unrealized goals and strategies representative of urban short-term planning initiatives. We present an example strategic scenario for the Central Arizona–Phoenix metropolitan region, and discuss the utility of the strategic scenario in long-term thinking for future sustainability and resilience in urban research and practice. This approach brings together diverse—sometimes competing—strategies and offers the opportunity to explore outcomes by comparing and contrasting their implications and tradeoffs, and evaluating the resulting strategic scenario against scenarios developed through alternative, participatory approaches.