Modeling of Virus Survival Time in Respiratory Droplets on Surfaces: A New Rational Approach for Antivirus Strategies
Modeling of Virus Survival Time in Respiratory Droplets on Surfaces: A New Rational Approach for Antivirus Strategies
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DOI：
10.3389/fmats.2021.631723
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发表时间：
2021-04-16
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Pugno, N. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Di Novo, N. G.;Carotenuto, A. R.;Pugno, N. M.
考虑到液滴位于具有特定接触角的光滑表面上，对病毒在无底液滴中活力衰减的建模进行了讨论。为了研究在规定的温度下，材料的表面能和环境湿度如何共同决定病毒的生存能力，我们提出了一个涉及最小数量的热力学相关参数的模型。特别地，考虑一个含盐的水滴（一个盐）作为真实溶液（介质和自然/人工唾液）的最简单近似，蒸发由一个一阶时间相关的非线性微分方程来描述，适当地重新排列，得到接触角演变作为唯一的未知函数。通过假设恒定的环境温度和相对湿度在0-100%范围内，对实际情况中几种接触角和两种典型液滴大小进行了分析。模拟的结果，根据盐浓度、蒸气压和液滴体积的时间演变，阐明了一些以前尚未被很好理解的动力学，展示了三种主要机制如何被认为是相对湿度的函数，这三种机制与病毒活力的重要趋势直接相关，迄今为止仅在实验中得到强调。通过回顾盐的累积剂量（CD）的概念，以解释病毒暴露于盐浓度对病毒活力的影响，我们展示了所提出的方法如何通过预测其在给定温度下的生存时间作为相对湿度和接触角的函数来建议病毒命运的图表。我们发现与各种包膜病毒的实验数据很好地吻合，并预测了特别是冠状病毒的替代品Phi6病毒的生存能力与相对湿度的特征u型依赖关系。鉴于该模型的通用性，并且一旦有了将某种病毒（如SARS-CoV-2）的脆弱性与盐或其他物质的CD浓度联系起来的实验数据，人们认为，这种方法可以用于抗病毒策略和方案，以预测/减少与SARS-CoV-2和其他病毒相关的人类健康风险。
The modeling of the viability decay of viruses in sessile droplets is addressed considering a droplet sitting on a smooth surface characterized by a specific contact angle. To investigate, at prescribed temperature, how surface energy of the material and ambient humidity cooperate to determine the virus viability, we propose a model which involves the minimum number of thermodynamically relevant parameters. In particular, by considering a saline water droplet (one salt) as the simplest approximation of real solutions (medium and natural/artificial saliva), the evaporation is described by a first-order time-dependent nonlinear differential equation properly rearranged to obtain the contact angle evolution as the sole unknown function. The analyses were performed for several contact angles and two typical droplet sizes of interest in real situations by assuming constant ambient temperature and relative humidity in the range 0-100%. The results of the simulations, given in terms of time evolution of salt concentration, vapor pressure, and droplet volume, elucidate some previously not yet well-understood dynamics, demonstrating how three main regimes-directly implicated in nontrivial trends of virus viability and to date only highlighted experimentally-can be recognized as the function of relative humidity. By recalling the concept of cumulative dose of salts (CD), to account for the effect of the exposition of viruses to salt concentration on virus viability, we show how the proposed approach could suggest a chart of a virus fate by predicting its survival time at a given temperature as a function of the relative humidity and contact angle. We found a good agreement with experimental data for various enveloped viruses and predicted in particular for the Phi6 virus, a surrogate of coronavirus, the characteristic U-shaped dependence of viability on relative humidity. Given the generality of the model and once experimental data are available that link the vulnerability of a certain virus, such as SARS-CoV-2, to the concentrations of salts or other substances in terms of CD, it is felt that this approach could be employed for antivirus strategies and protocols for the prediction/reduction of human health risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.