The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China
The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China
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DOI：
10.1093/jtm/taaa037
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发表时间：
2020-04-01
影响因子：
25.7
通讯作者：
Khosrawipour, Tanja
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lau, Hien;Khosrawipour, Veria;Khosrawipour, Tanja
背景：以中国武汉为中心的新冠肺炎疫情被世界卫生组织（WHO）宣布为国际关注的突发公共卫生事件。因此，许多国家对中国实施了航班限制。中国已经对武汉和整个湖北省实施了人口封锁。然而，这两项重大措施是否导致COVID-19病例传播发生重大变化仍不清楚。方法：对封锁前后国内、国际新冠肺炎确诊病例发展情况进行分析。我们评估了国内空中交通流量与新冠肺炎确诊病例数的相关性，并确定了封锁前后以及新冠肺炎诊断标准变化后中国境内新冠肺炎病例的增长曲线。结果：我们的研究结果表明，实施封锁后，翻倍时间从2天（95% CI: 1.9-2.6）显著增加到4天（95% CI: 3.5-4.3）。在将诊断和测试方法分别更改为19.3 （95% CI: 15.1-26.3）后，发现进一步增加。此外，国内航空交通与COVID-19传播的相关性在封城后减弱(封城前：r=0.98， P
Background: With its epicenter in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization (WHO). Consequently, many countries have implemented flight restrictions to China. China itself has imposed a lockdown of the population of Wuhan as well as the entire Hubei province. However, whether these two enormous measures have led to significant changes in the spread of COVID-19 cases remains unclear.Methods: We analyzed the available data on the development of confirmed domestic and international COVID-19 cases before and after lockdown measures. We evaluated the correlation of domestic air traffic to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and determined the growth curves of COVID-19 cases within China before and after lockdown as well as after changes in COVID-19 diagnostic criteria.Results: Our findings indicate a significant increase in doubling time from 2 days (95% CI: 1.9-2.6) to 4 days (95% CI: 3.5-4.3), after imposing lockdown. A further increase is detected after changing diagnostic and testing methodology to 19.3 (95% CI: 15.1-26.3), respectively. Moreover, the correlation between domestic air traffic and COVID-19 spread became weaker following lockdown (before lockdown: r=0.98, P