DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE GREAT MODERATION IN AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL WITH MATCHING FRICTIONS
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE GREAT MODERATION IN AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL WITH MATCHING FRICTIONS
复制标题
人口变化和具有匹配摩擦的代际重叠模型中的大缓和
DOI：
10.1017/s1365100510000805
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
Steven Lugauer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Steven Lugauer
35岁以下劳动力的比例，或年轻人的比例，与过去几十年的周期性GDP波动有关。在1970年代，青年所占比例和商业周期波动很大。然后，随着人口老龄化，产出波动性下降。我开发了一个重叠世代模型，具有搜索摩擦和生产力冲击，其中年龄分布通过两个渠道影响周期性波动。首先，年轻工人的就业波动更大，产生了一种组合效应。第二，缺乏经验的工人生产较少，因此公司根据年龄分布决定创造多少工作岗位。当年轻人所占比例较高时，企业的这种内生反应和构成效应都会增加总体波动性。该模型可以在GDP波动中复制大缓和的很大一部分，表明人口统计学的重要作用。该模型还按年龄组复制了失业率、离职率和就业波动。
The fraction of the labor force under 35, or youth share, has been correlated with cyclical GDP volatility over the past several decades. The youth share and business cycle fluctuations were high during the 1970s. Then, as the population aged, output volatility declined. I develop an overlapping generations model featuring search frictions and productivity shocks, in which the age distribution affects cyclical volatility through two channels. First, employment for younger workers fluctuates more, creating a composition effect. Second, inexperienced workers produce less, so firms decide how many jobs to create based on the age distribution. Both this endogenous response by firms and the composition effect increase aggregate volatility when the youth share is high. The model can replicate a large portion of the Great Moderation in GDP volatility, suggesting an important role for demographics. The model also replicates unemployment rates, separation rates, and employment volatility by age group.