Changes in the relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon under global warming
Changes in the relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon under global warming
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/abca63
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发表时间：
2020-11
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Z. Jia;M. Bollasina;Chaofan Li;R. Doherty;O. Wild
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Z. Jia;M. Bollasina;Chaofan Li;R. Doherty;O. Wild
使用马克斯普朗克研究所大集合代表浓度路径 8.5 实验研究了 21 世纪不同全球变暖水平下厄尔尼诺南方涛动 (ENSO) 和东亚冬季风 (EAWM) 之间关系的变化。这种关系的外部强迫成分（即温室气体和人为气溶胶排放的强迫）从现在增强到+1.5°C，然后减弱直到+3°C。这些变化的特点是厄尔尼诺相关变暖的核心强度和位置的变化以及赤道太平洋上空的深对流异常，导致整个亚太地区的环流异常。在全球变暖的情况下，ENSO-EAWM关系通过EAWM强度的变化和ENSO模式的变化与EAWM和ENSO的背景平均状态密切相关。在适度变暖（高达 1.5 °C）的情况下，人为气溶胶在影响 ENSO-EAWM 关系方面发挥着关键作用。
Changes in the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) at various global warming levels during the 21st century are examined using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiments. The externally forced component of this relationship (i.e. forced by greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols emissions) strengthens from present-day to +1.5 °C, and then weakens until +3 °C. These changes are characterized by variations in strength and location of the core of El Niño-related warming and associated deep convection anomalies over the equatorial Pacific leading to circulation anomalies across the Asian-Pacific region. Under global warming, the ENSO–EAWM relationship is strongly related to the background mean state of both the EAWM and ENSO, through changes in the EAWM strength and the shift of the ENSO pattern. Anthropogenic aerosols play a key role in influencing the ENSO–EAWM relationship under moderate warming (up to 1.5 °C).