Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost
Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6
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发表时间：
2019-02-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Eliseev, Dmitry O.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Streletskiy, Dmitry A.;Suter, Luis J.;Eliseev, Dmitry O.
俄罗斯永久冻土地区在俄罗斯经济中发挥着重要作用，拥有丰富的自然资源储备，并拥有大型基础设施，以促进这些资源的开发。迅速变化的气候条件是这些地区未来经济发展的主要关切。本研究探讨了俄罗斯永久冻土对基础设施和住房的影响程度，并估计了这些资产的相关价值。一个整体的气候预测被用来作为一个强制的冻土岩土模型，以估计的成本的建筑物和基础设施的影响下，到世纪中期的RCP 8.5情景下的冻土退化。永久冻土固定资产的总价值估计为2486亿美元。预计气候变化将影响20%的建筑物和19%的基础设施资产，分别耗资167亿美元和677亿美元。永久冻土上的住宅真实的房地产总成本估计为526亿美元，到世纪中期，54%的建筑物受到永久冻土严重退化的影响。本文讨论了气候变化预测的可变性和俄罗斯永久冻土行政区科普预测的气候变化影响的能力。这项研究可用于土地使用规划，并促进制定适应和减缓战略，以应对气候变化对基础设施和住房造成的永久冻土退化影响。
Russian regions containing permafrost play an important role in the Russian economy, containing vast reserves of natural resources and hosting large-scale infrastructure to facilitate these resources' exploitation. Rapidly changing climatic conditions are a major concern for the future economic development of these regions. This study examines the extent to which infrastructure and housing are affected by permafrost in Russia and estimates the associated value of these assets. An ensemble of climate projections is used as a forcing to a permafrost-geotechnical model, in order to estimate the cost of buildings and infrastructure affected by permafrost degradation by mid-21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. The total value of fixed assets on permafrost was estimated at 248.6 bln USD. Projected climatic changes will affect 20% of structures and 19% of infrastructure assets, costing 16.7 bln USD and 67.7 bln USD respectively to mitigate. The total cost of residential real estate on permafrost was estimated at 52.6 bln USD, with 54% buildings affected by significant permafrost degradation by the mid-21st century. The paper discusses the variability in climate-change projections and the ability of Russia's administrative regions containing permafrost to cope with projected climate-change impacts. The study can be used in land use planning and to promote the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for addressing the climate-change impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure and housing.