Fully Dynamic Input-Output/System Dynamics Modeling for Ecological-Economic System Analysis
Fully Dynamic Input-Output/System Dynamics Modeling for Ecological-Economic System Analysis
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DOI：
10.3390/su10061765
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发表时间：
2018-05
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Takuro Uehara;Mateo Cordier;Bertrand Hamaide
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Takuro Uehara;Mateo Cordier;Bertrand Hamaide
生态经济系统的复杂性大大降低了我们调查其行为并提出旨在实现各种环境和/或经济目标的政策的能力。根据最近的建议，将非线性动态建模与投入产出（IO）建模，我们开发了一个完全动态的生态经济模型，通过整合IO与系统动力学（SD），以更好地捕捉生态经济系统的关键属性。我们还使用政策影响和政策敏感性分析开发和评估各种情景。该模型和分析应用于工业港口在塞纳河口（上诺曼底地区，法国）的鱼类育苗栖息地的退化。建模技术，动态化，和方案使我们能够显示经济和生态结果之间的权衡，并评估恢复方案和水质改善对鱼类种群的影响。
The complexity of ecological-economic systems significantly reduces our ability to investigate their behavior and propose policies aimed at various environmental and/or economic objectives. Following recent suggestions for integrating nonlinear dynamic modeling with input-output (IO) modeling, we develop a fully dynamic ecological-economic model by integrating IO with system dynamics (SD) for better capturing critical attributes of ecological-economic systems. We also develop and evaluate various scenarios using policy impact and policy sensitivity analyses. The model and analysis are applied to the degradation of fish nursery habitats by industrial harbors in the Seine estuary (Haute-Normandie region, France). The modeling technique, dynamization, and scenarios allow us to show trade-offs between economic and ecological outcomes and evaluate the impacts of restoration scenarios and water quality improvement on the fish population.